Bitcoin is still early

[NapoleanDynamite]

there’s no patent on what it does, correct?

No...There is not a "Patent" on Bitcoin. It open source software that can be copied by anyone. You can literally restart your own exact copy of Bitcoin and call it Blippicoin if you like. The hard part is getting anyone to accept that it is worth anything more than the original.

Alternatively you could run your own node and verify that Bitcoin is in fact doing what it is supposed to do and participate in the network that is already worth over 1 Trillion dollars.

Please keep in mind, Bitcoin is just a ledger. It is just the safest and hardest ledger that ever existed. Without consensus it cannot be changed and there are plenty of game theoretical reasons why it will not be changed (with the exception of minor software changes that happen about every 2-4 years which have so far changed mostly privacy and safety concerns).

[chucki]

While btc is the coke of crypto currency, why are people pretending its impossible to make a different chain or ones dont currently exist that are also fixed in supply? None of these are truths or impossibilities, its just listing a feature, like your car has a turbo and mine doesnt. So what?

That isnt what makes btc btc. digital gold, yes, pow yes, all things replicable. Not that I think it will, btc was first and probably will remain the standard for a long time, maybe quite a long time.

But given these are all programmable, none of the features making it it, are unique or non implementable in newer coins.

I don't think anybody is pretending that...but there are very few incentive structures for creating another truly decentralized protocol. Sure, if you're an early adopter that would certainly be incentive -- but gaining the network effects that BTC has $1T+ market capitalization and secured by 10+ gigawatts of energy, and billions invested to hash it would be hard to disrupt (I think you agree with this so just answering the rhetorical Q for others). The incentive structure exists for the creation of more centralized protocols where the creators can make a ton of profit.

[chucki]

No...There is not "Patent" on Bitcoin. It open source software that can be copied by anyone. You can literally restart your own exact copy of Bitcoin and call it Blippicoin if you like. The hard part is getting anyone to accept that it is worth anything more than the original.

Alternatively you could run your own node and verify that Bitcoin is in fact doing what it is supposed to do and participate in the network that is already worth over 1 Trillion dollars.

Please keep in mind, Bitcoin is just a ledger. It is just the safest and hardest ledger that ever existed. Without consensus it cannot be changed and there are plenty of game theoretical reasons why it will not be changed (with the exception of minor software changes that happen about every 2-4 years which have so far changed mostly privacy and safety concerns).

This. I didn't see your response as I was typing my own.

[jacoavlu]

While btc is the coke of crypto currency, why are people pretending its impossible to make a different chain or ones dont currently exist that are also fixed in supply? None of these are truths or impossibilities, its just listing a feature, like your car has a turbo and mine doesnt. So what?

That isnt what makes btc btc. digital gold, yes, pow yes, all things replicable. Not that I think it will, btc was first and probably will remain the standard for a long time, maybe quite a long time.

But given these are all programmable, none of the features making it it, are unique or non implementable in newer coins.

of course. i don’t think anyone is pretending critical features can’t be replicated. there are already other coins, several forks of btc

but what can’t be replicated is the origin story. the concept was expressed in a white paper before being implemented and it was there for anyone to review and for anyone to mine from day one. it had no value (in USD terms) at origin. it became what it is now organically in a free and open market from zero to $1T and the creator disappeared and has never moved the coins he mined

that would be nearly impossible to duplicate now. let alone climb the hill to overcome btc momentum and network effect

[xraygoggles]

While btc is the coke of crypto currency, why are people pretending its impossible to make a different chain or ones dont currently exist that are also fixed in supply? None of these are truths or impossibilities, its just listing a feature, like your car has a turbo and mine doesnt. So what?

That isnt what makes btc btc. digital gold, yes, pow yes, all things replicable. Not that I think it will, btc was first and probably will remain the standard for a long time, maybe quite a long time.

But given these are all programmable, none of the features making it it, are unique or non implementable in newer coins.

I would argue the weighty combination of it's Lindy effect (amongst other network effects), organic yet steady growth YoY, pure market-based pricing without any oversight (to date), and now real institutional interest makes it highly unlikely that Bitcoin will be replaced. It will either eventually supersede the gold's MC (or at least a portion of it), or fail completely (for some reason that I cannot fathom at the moment). But unlikely to be replaced by another similar use-case cryptocurrency.

[xraygoggles]

X-ray...
I read your links above. There are a lot of inaccuracies in the papers. A lot of good info too, but significant misinformation. ETH has huge amounts of VC $ backing it and I suspect it will survive and thrive. But there are some very significant critiques. For this I have stayed away from it for the time.

If you have a day or two, I suggest you read through this paper and try to digest it all. Some very interesting things are happening in "crypto" that will have significant impacts on the sector as a whole. Even if these were not Vitalik's intentions with ETH...this is where it is at. The authors are open to critiques if you have the technical skill understanding to offer them.

https://www.uncerto.com/only-the-strong-survive

I'll take a look at this - I've read many pros/cons of ETH before, and I am still bullish, but always good to read and learn more about it from other naysayers...

[xraygoggles]

where did someone say it’s useless?

Yea, no one here said that I admit - I was conflating what I routinely see from the cringe-worthy Twitterati who tend to be in all-or-none cliques for their crypto of choice.

[xraygoggles]

Well this didn't hold up well....Maybe BTC is an ETF.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/bitcoin-etfs-may-finally-make-their-debut-sort-of.html

Actually, it's a Bitcoin futures ETF, not Bitcoin spot price ETF. Kinda big difference.

Downside to former is they don't lead to natural price discovery, since the futures contracts can be easily manipulated, unlike the latter, where the spot price is more or less 'fixed' (as in less likely to be maliciously manipulated, not fixed as in volatility, which will be the same as BTC of course).

Still, probably a good thing overall.

[Zaphod]

of course. i don’t think anyone is pretending critical features can’t be replicated. there are already other coins, several forks of btc

but what can’t be replicated is the origin story. the concept was expressed in a white paper before being implemented and it was there for anyone to review and for anyone to mine from day one. it had no value (in USD terms) at origin. it became what it is now organically in a free and open market from zero to $1T and the creator disappeared and has never moved the coins he mined

that would be nearly impossible to duplicate now. let alone climb the hill to overcome btc momentum and network effect

To your and xrays first move adantage point I wholly agree.

Otoh, even in the last couple pages "cant be replicated" type arguments have been made. I think btc king for the foreseeable future. Institutions arent going to want to flip to newest thing every 3 months ofc.

[jacoavlu]

To your and xrays first move adantage point I wholly agree.

Otoh, even in the last couple pages "cant be replicated" type arguments have been made. I think btc king for the foreseeable future. Institutions arent going to want to flip to newest thing every 3 months ofc.

taken as a whole it can not be replicated. the timing and milieu matters.

[Otolith]

Enjoyed this exchange. Would honestly consider myself moderately educated on crypto but not overly opinionated.
For long term retirement/wealth building, I would be curious what is everyone doing? BTC, ETH or both? and what percentage of portfolio?

[Nysoz]

I’m uneducated so I just put 1% of my net worth in crypto split evenly into btc and eth. Put it in one of those interest generating places (I know it’s not 100% safe) and leave it alone.

[CordMcNally]

I'm currently about 4% split between BTC and ADA at about 75/25 but I'd like to get that to 50/50 at some point.

[CBZ]

Thanks Napoleon for sharing your BTC/crypto journey. Your success is well deserved. I'm a typical MD in regards to my attitude towards crypto. Up until this Summer, I was a non-participant, semi-hater. However, a surgeon friend has been mildly prodding me to invest in at least BTC since January, and I finally took the dive into the rabbit hole this June. Interestingly enough, the spark for me was a Lex Fridman podcast with Vitalik B, which led me down a deeper hole into studying the Craig Wright Faketoshi story (long story short-- he's a total scammer).

I used an exchange which allowed smaller daily deposits (I refuse to entrust Plaid with my banking credentials). Over the past four months, I've DCA about 3% of my investable assets in the following ratio: BTC 60% ETH 25% (mirroring the approximate overall Market Caps in relation to each other) SOL 5% ADA 5% and 5% Other (usual suspect three and four letter Tokens/Projects). I've attempted to create my own "Index Fund" of crypto. I stumbled upon this thread last month, and read thru each page, which has been a fun and enlightening read. Kudos again to Napoleon.

I also made a huge mistake at the end of August. I became impatient with my DCA strategy with taxable dollars, and was eager to quickly increase my crypto position. After some research (nowhere enough), I roughly doubled my overall crypto allocation by purchasing shares of Grayscale GDLC at its near peak. It's currently down approx. 50%; a blow that's lessened by the fact my taxable crypto is up roughly 40% since June.

For those in the know, what exit strategy would you recommend for my GDLC holdings? On the one hand, I haven't "lost" any money until I sell. On the other, seeing this less than ideal fund in my 401k is a constant eyesore. I'm also worried that the BTC Futures and impending spot ETF approval will cause GDLC to crash even further. Any advice would be helpful.

Despite my horrible GDLC timing, I'm very bullish on crypto, namely BTC and ETH. My plan is to exit out of GDLC, but maintain my overall crypto exposure to 3-5% of all investable assets (my home in a high COLA represents approx. 40% of my net worth, but I never plan on selling)

Thanks!

[jacoavlu]

people would be smarter to say “bitcoin” and “altcoins” instead of “crypto”

again most if not all altcoins are basically securities, digital tokens analogous to stocks in a company and at some point the SEC is likely to take action along this route