Bitcoin is still early

[billy]

Ugh- again those of us who choose to sit on the sidelines are not "intellectually lazy" nor do we "need to re-examine (our) investment goals". What NapoleanDynamite just stated is the same as what is said by real estate enthusiasts (in the 80s and now as many FIRE bloggers), options/margin fans, day traders, Dave ramsey, Jim Cramer, whole life insurance salesmen, etc. There are no called strikes in this game. Some of us just dont want to play in your game. Play as you wish. Many roads to dublin yada yada...

[Nysoz]

As someone that has around 1% crypto exposure and do crazy things like invest in stocks and options, I recognize it’s not necessary or may not meet everyone’s investment goals, interests, risk/volatility tolerance.

All the high earners here will do well in their own way. The most important part is good habits and savings rate. Then coming up with a plan that they can stick to. Most people don’t like seeing their portfolio or any of their assets swing 10%+ in a day or watching their portfolio every day.

[CordMcNally]

Most people don’t like seeing their portfolio or any of their assets swing 10%+ in a day or watching their portfolio every day.

I could see myself being ok with daily 10%+ upswings every day.

[NapoleanDynamite]

I could see myself being ok with daily 10%+ upswings every day.

Me Too.

"or watching their portfolio every day."

That's been my point...you literally don't have to watch it every day with BTC. Just DCA in to a small position if you don't like watching it....This is exactly what I do...just like with all of my other assets. It is automated. Then the 200% yearly CAGR gets fun to look at now and again. It's not 10%/day, but I'll take 200%/year. (No, I'm not suggesting it will do another 200% CAGR over the next 10 years like it did the past 10). But you get my point. I would watch my index funds and real estate with glee if they could return 200%.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Ugh- again those of us who choose to sit on the sidelines are not "intellectually lazy" nor do we "need to re-examine (our) investment goals". What NapoleanDynamite just stated is the same as what is said by real estate enthusiasts (in the 80s and now as many FIRE bloggers), options/margin fans, day traders, Dave ramsey, Jim Cramer, whole life insurance salesmen, etc. There are no called strikes in this game. Some of us just dont want to play in your game. Play as you wish. Many roads to dublin yada yada...

We will agree to disagree here. Here is an explanation of why. IMO if someone is on this website, they actually care about their personal financial situation (this may be a bad assumption as there are probably also insurance salesman, financial advisors etc reading this). In theory though, the people I am mentioning have investment goals, or they would not be reading this.

If someone wants to ignore the best returning asset class over the past 10 years and ignore the best risk/reward asset class over the next 10 years, that's fine. But I would argue they are either just being stubborn, dumb, or lazy if they take that position. I don't think anyone here is dumb. Probably just about everyone here is smarter than me. They likely wouldn't be stubborn if they have done any reading at this point. So I fall back on the lazy. The information is so plentiful and so painfully obvious that even an idiot like me can understand it.

When information presents itself that proves my original belief wrong, I take that into consideration. As the COVID situation has shown us, some people will never change their position even when they are so clearly incorrect.

I hope that helps explain where my original statement comes from.

Thanks,

[xraygoggles]

DCA Bitcoin is probably a good idea, if you're in for the long haul, and not just this current bull cycle.

BUT... you should also DCA Ether as well, since, going forward, there's more upside potential (in the long run).

[Otolith]

We will agree to disagree here. Here is an explanation of why. IMO if someone is on this website, they actually care about their personal financial situation (this may be a bad assumption as there are probably also insurance salesman, financial advisors etc reading this). In theory though, the people I am mentioning have investment goals, or they would not be reading this.

If someone wants to ignore the best returning asset class over the past 10 years and ignore the best risk/reward asset class over the next 10 years, that's fine. But I would argue they are either just being stubborn, dumb, or lazy if they take that position. I don't think anyone here is dumb. Probably just about everyone here is smarter than me. They likely wouldn't be stubborn if they have done any reading at this point. So I fall back on the lazy. The information is so plentiful and so painfully obvious that even an idiot like me can understand it.

When information presents itself that proves my original belief wrong, I take that into consideration. As the COVID situation has shown us, some people will never change their position even when they are so clearly incorrect.

I hope that helps explain where my original statement comes from.

Thanks,

I have invested in crypto, in-fact years ago I did. I hold none currently. I see the value, several of my friends invest. My problem with it is it's volatile. If you wont admit it's volatile you are overlooking it. I'm not saying it isn't going up or a bad long term investment. If bitcoin crashes i'm not sure I would have the mental fortitude to ride it through and not sell. My faith that I can ride through a down market with VTI is higher. Thus I will take the possible lower long term gains of VTI but its worth less stress.

My other concern, is that one day there will be a leader in the crypto world. I'm not sure it will be bitcoin... So say its etherum or another coin. When do you know its time to abandon bitcoin and sell and start buying more etherum? I know it's time to sell VTI when I retire otherwise i'm holding. Can you really say that bitcoin has the 20 year consistency track record a stock market index fund has? (not saying VTI will outperform or not saying crypto is a bad investment)

If all these people who have done well with crypto are willing to tell me when to invest 10k and when to sell maybe i'd oblige

[NapoleanDynamite]

DCA Bitcoin is probably a good idea, if you're in for the long haul, and not just this current bull cycle.

BUT... you should also DCA Ether as well, since, going forward, there's more upside potential (in the long run).

Ok....but I disagree... metaphorically ETH could be Amazon, or it could be Myspace. Metaphorically Bitcoin is the Internet. Much more long term upside potential to BTC. Short term, anything could happen.

[East coast]

Isn't Blockchain the internet? Bitcoin definitely isn't analogous to internet, and Blockchain may not be right in this context, but I at least feel like I know enough to know Bitcoin does not equal internet.

[Brains428]

I think there is a school of thought where cryptocurrency is investible and there is a buy and sell period all based on the value of said crypto in your fiat currency of choice.

But there is another school of thought that BTC or whatever coin is the new currency and there is no buy and sell. Simply just buy because of it's utility and the value held in that. How that value is extracted to purchasing items or towards productivity is another thing itself.

There is also a split if it matters if sovereign nations or global financial leaders adopt it.

I dunno. I have a position in a few projects. I can see both sides of the argument for and against.

[NapoleanDynamite]

I have invested in crypto, in-fact years ago I did. I hold none currently. I see the value, several of my friends invest. My problem with it is it's volatile. If you wont admit it's volatile you are overlooking it. I'm not saying it isn't going up or a bad long term investment. If bitcoin crashes i'm not sure I would have the mental fortitude to ride it through and not sell. My faith that I can ride through a down market with VTI is higher. Thus I will take the possible lower long term gains of VTI but its worth less stress.

My other concern, is that one day there will be a leader in the crypto world. I'm not sure it will be bitcoin... So say its etherum or another coin. When do you know its time to abandon bitcoin and sell and start buying more etherum? I know it's time to sell VTI when I retire otherwise i'm holding. Can you really say that bitcoin has the 20 year consistency track record a stock market index fund has? (not saying VTI will outperform or not saying crypto is a bad investment)

If all these people who have done well with crypto are willing to tell me when to invest 10k and when to sell maybe i'd oblige

Otolith, These are good questions.

I don't deny the Volatility of Bitcoin. It is still early in the adoption phase of Bitcoin. But if you allocate 1% of your portfolio to BTC and it goes to zero, you have lost a negligible portion of your portfolio. However if you allocate 1% of your portfolio to BTC and it 100X's over the next 10-20 years, as I suspect it will, then it will dwarf the rest of your portfolio. So if the volatility concerns you, then you adjust your asset allocation accordingly. I have a much higher conviction in BTC over the next 10 years than I do VTI. But I still hold both (Although mine might be more in VTSMX right now).

Bitcoin does not have a 20 year track record...of course. I have never stated that. It has only existed for 12 years. I'm also not saying that a high net worth individual should have 100% of their portfolio in Bitcoin. I don't agree with that thought nor am I suggesting it, but I understand why some would argue all of your net worth should be in bitcoin right now.

If you are still confused about the "crypto world" as you state above then you should do additional reading. The wars have been fought. Bitcoin has won as the store of value and future medium of exchange. All of the other "cryptos" you could think of like companies trying to make it while Bitcoin is the actual money that the companies will transact in or the reserve that they will need to hold in order to hold value.

As for when it is time to sell Bitcoin. I would suggest never. Of course I would also suggest never selling your VTI if possible. Mostly for tax reasons. Of course this is unrealistic for anyone wanting to retire (although there may be future options to borrow against your bitcoin and never touch the principle and then pass on the bitcoin after you die).

So, when do I actually plan to sell Bitcoin? 1. If I feel the need to re-balance my portfolio because BTC is too heavily weighted for my risk/volatility tolerance or if I feel there will be a better performing asset. 2. If I need dollars to buy something. That's it. The same as your VTI. You sell it when you need it. Otherwise you hold it and pass it on to your heirs after you die.

[Nysoz]

I could see myself being ok with daily 10%+ upswings every day.

One of my options strategy aims to make around 5-10% weekly on capital at risk. I figured that if I make the right bet 52 times in a row to make that 10%, I'll have 142x my money in a year. If I'm wrong, I'll lose everything at stake. What could go wrong?!

Anyways, even the btc bulls think that the price target in 2030 is maybe $500k? So that would be a 10x in 10 years. I don't think I see anyone estimating it'll go to 100x in the 10-20 years.

[blippi]

Bitcoin won now? Too confident in your predictions here. Not sure if you are sincere or just trying to pump. Substitute “beanie babies” for “bitcoin” and “collectibles” for “crypto” and many of the above statements sound like something from the 1990s. I bought a trivial amount of btc for speculative day trade gambling, as did many undermyelinated high schoolers. hoping i get some good dice rolls before the crash.

[Tim]

NapoleanDynamite
You know I find intriguing your posts. Tremendously entertaining and complex. But your last conclusion is the funniest you have come up with yet.
”But I would argue they are either just being stubborn, dumb, or lazy if they take that position. I don't think anyone here is dumb. ”

This is way over my head. If one has no need or want or desire to then why should they buy BTC?
I may be dumb, but I am not stupid. I am in some ways stubborn and lazy. Guilty as can be.
But you have not defined long term or an exit plan. There is absolutely no reason to draw conclusions about someone not investing in any asset or opportunities. In your opinion, simply a missed opportunity. No more, no less. Stick to BTC, not the investor.
Carry on.

[NapoleanDynamite]

I think there is a school of thought where cryptocurrency is investible and there is a buy and sell period all based on the value of said crypto in your fiat currency of choice.

But there is another school of thought that BTC or whatever coin is the new currency and there is no buy and sell. Simply just buy because of it's utility and the value held in that. How that value is extracted to purchasing items or towards productivity is another thing itself.

There is also a split if it matters if sovereign nations or global financial leaders adopt it.

I dunno. I have a position in a few projects. I can see both sides of the argument for and against.

I agree with much of this. Having a position in a few projects is fine. Especially the way it is stated. As IMO all of the crypto industry are projects. Some may spectacularly succeed. The vast majority will fail. Many are outright frauds. I'm not sure which ones will be the winners and which will be the losers.

IMO Bitcoin is not a project as it is a completely different beast. Brains already knows my take on this....and I will look spectacularly stupid if I am wrong. I have tried to find holes in this opinion. I have come up with counter arguments. I have listened to the counter arguments from those far smarter than me. And so far, I have not heard a single good argument to change my opinion on the matter. So the opinion is proving to be correct.