investing on the downturn

[Balance1969]

It's pointless. He won't do it in real time although he's been asked here and he's also been asked over and over on Bogleheads, too.

Why would we want that anyways? We have Cord McNally's privileged and confidential Investment Flowsheet.

[EntrepreneurMD]

It's pointless. He won't do it in real time although he's been asked here and he's also been asked over and over on Bogleheads, too.

The when are the training wheels. The why allows you to ride the bike without assistance. The sense of entitlement by the many necessitates the continuous use of training wheels, and therefore prevents them from ever being able to ride the bike. Lose the dependence on training wheels. Forget the limited utility of the when, understand the power of the why, and you will figure out the how for yourself.

- Feeling like Confucius right now.

[racelari]

dude I say just put the money in each month and stop worrying about it!

[PharmMedMD]

It doesn't benefit me at all whether or not another believes. But it does helps me to just do.

It should however, benefit someone with an open mind on the why, far more than the when. It's the very reason the when is reproducible. I disagree that it doesn't help anyone. When is just one moment in time even if someone benefits from the move, but it's just hand holding. That is what doesn't help. The why can enable one to repeatedly benefit.

Anyway, looking for a good time for re-entry, the very point of discussion of this thread, which started several days after my trade. There are good explanations for the timing of the conversation beyond convenient.

There is a healthy skepticism, and then there is a skepticism that keeps you from believing what is possible. It's not a matter of getting in at the absolute bottom and getting out at the absolute top, it's just about better than holding on to the downturns. You're smart and adventurous, reminds me of my early attending years.



It was the last of my traditional index holdings. Focusing in on my favored sectors as you know.

That looks like a Vanguard account. Can you post your 10 year personal returns?

[hightower]

what is your opinion on investing in the etf during a downturn , trying to time the market each month, rather than just auto deducting on a fixed date each month?

kind of curious to know what really helps in the long run

You'll end up spending a lot of time second guessing yourself every day that you decide to buy or not and over a 20-30 year career, you probably won't notice any difference.

[CordMcNally]

You'll end up spending a lot of time second guessing yourself every day that you decide to buy or not and over a 20-30 year career, you *definitely* won't notice any difference.

Edited for accuracy.

[Lordosis]

This is silly. No one can predict when the low will be in the month. Chances are you will miss it and regret it or just not invest while you wait for a better chance and hold cash too long.

Also remember what you are actually doing. This dip only effects the money you are investing not your whole portfolio. If you put 10K in a month and you catch it 2% lower that is only $200. I do not think it is worth the time and stress to be able to stick in a few hundred extra dollars a month even if it were possible.

[TheDangerZone]

If I am going to be investing soon anyway with an upcoming paycheck and I see a really bad market day like Wednesday, I will just go ahead and pull the trigger early instead of waiting. I use the revolving liquidity in our checking account. Figure I might as well, and that's as far as I'll take it.

It only comes up because a large portion of my pay is in the form of a quarterly bonus, so automated monthly investing isn't a great option. Otherwise, I would just set and forget if I had anything close to a steady paycheck every month.

[EntrepreneurMD]

That looks like a Vanguard account. Can you post your 10 year personal returns?

I transferred from Vanguard to another brokerage at the beginning of the year so it's not online, however the returns have been rather consistent, thought slightly better this year.

YTD retirement account growth as of today is 27.3%, that includes a roughly 5-10% cash drag for dry gunpowder. At it's peak before this month's retracement it was 36.3%. That includes the equivalent of roughly 6% of the starting balance this year as annual contributions.

1-year account growth is just under 50%, good for 7 figures in 1 year, first year I hit this milestone.

[Balance1969]

If I am going to be investing soon anyway with an upcoming paycheck and I see a really bad market day like Wednesday, I will just go ahead and pull the trigger early instead of waiting. I use the revolving liquidity in our checking account. Figure I might as well, and that's as far as I'll take it.

It only comes up because a large portion of my pay is in the form of a quarterly bonus, so automated monthly investing isn't a great option. Otherwise, I would just set and forget if I had anything close to a steady paycheck every month.

That's a fun strategy for some of us with unsteady cash flow.

I am in a similar boat in that my billings vary per month depending on the size and number of projects I complete. I keep wiggle room $ in my checking, just for peace of mind, in part because some clients aren't consistent with payments. If I see a big reactionary downturn, I'll sometimes invest some idle wiggle room $, mostly for amusement. There really isn't any stress about it. If it goes up (which it eventually will), great. If it goes down more, well... at least I got a better deal then investing the day before. Otherwise, I just follow Chord McNally's Investment Flowsheet.

In the grand scheme of things, it won't make a significant difference.

[agentcontrast]

The past data shows that generally lump sum beats out dca over the long hall. For example, even putting in all you have right before a crash beats dca through the crash at set time monthly and onward. Now, buying on "red days" over green ones and still maintaining at least a fixed minimum input weekly vs lump sum i have not found any data on. This is obviously a type on market timing with the caveat that you will put a set amount in weekly or monthly even if market is up AND MORE if market happens to be down. Anyone have any data on this? I know past returns dont predict the future but this is not relevant for this question.

[notanotherusername]

The past data shows that generally lump sum beats out dca over the long hall. For example, even putting in all you have right before a crash beats dca through the crash at set time monthly and onward. Now, buying on "red days" over green ones and still maintaining at least a fixed minimum input weekly vs lump sum i have not found any data on. This is obviously a type on market timing with the caveat that you will put a set amount in weekly or monthly even if market is up AND MORE if market happens to be down. Anyone have any data on this? I know past returns dont predict the future but this is not relevant for this question.

It is just simple logic/math. Since the market has always gone up over a long period of time (not guaranteed going forward but 100% accurate over long periods of time looking backwards) then the sooner one invests (early lump sum is "sooner" on average than DCA), the better the eventual returns. The ups and downs in any 1 week or month are just noise compared to the marching...of......time........

[agentcontrast]

It is just simple logic/math. Since the market has always gone up over a long period of time (not guaranteed going forward but 100% accurate over long periods of time looking backwards) then the sooner one invests (early lump sum is "sooner" on average than DCA), the better the eventual returns. The ups and downs in any 1 week or month are just noise compared to the marching...of......time........

I don't see your "simply logic" holding up in volatile markets shorter term; say even 3yrs during the volatile time with recovery. Im not supporting market timing but just looking at different perspective.

[notanotherusername]

I don't see your "simply logic" holding up in volatile markets shorter term; say even 3yrs during the volatile time with recovery. Im not supporting market timing but just looking at different perspective.

Over a 3 year period, volatility could make a difference however my point was that over 20-30 years, lump sum as early as possible is best supported

[Balance1969]

Over a 3 year period, volatility could make a difference however my point was that over 20-30 years, lump sum as early as possible is best supported

That makes sense. If you need the money within 3 years, investing in the market is not the best idea. Better off investing in something more stable for short term goals.