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Does the 2016 market volatility mean anything to you?

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  • Does the 2016 market volatility mean anything to you?

    2015 was basically flat.

    Is the bull market over?

    Are we headed toward a bear?

    Most of all, do you care and does it matter to you?

  • #2
    IMHO, we have had a great 5 year run atleast. I think we are due a true correction and this may be the beginning of it. I do most of my investing on my own through help on here and bogleheads but my accounts are starting to grow to a level that I would like to get some professional help especially in terms of non-traditional investments (real estates, hedgefunds, etc).

    All in all it doesn't mean alot to me because I think the market will always come back to a higher point but it is easy to jump ship especially after events like last week.


    • #3

      I would like to get some professional help especially in terms of non-traditional investments (real estates, hedgefunds, etc).
      Click to expand...

      Here's some non-professional help to save you the time & money of going to a professional: don't EVER invest in hedge funds! The failure rate alone should scare you away, not to mention the 2-3% expense ratio, tax inefficiencies, and 20% profit cut the hedge fund manager takes anytime he/she makes money.


      To answer the OP, I was happy with the market downturn this past week. I'm still in the infancy of my investing life and won't be putting attending-level money into my retirement accounts until I actually make attending money. I hope a bear market continues for the next 18 months so I can get a good chunk of change into the market while stocks are "on sale."


      • #4
        Not really.  Stay the course.  Rebalance as needed.

        One benefit is that I plan on front-loading my 457(b), investing in my boys' 529s and receiving a profit-sharing contribution to my 401(k) in the next few weeks.  I'll be buying low.



        • #5
          Not all hedgefunds are created equally. You might want to do a little research before you generalize. I made great money in a hedgefund last year when most people broke even or made little gains.


          • #6
            While it is always painful to lose money, I've been spending a lot of time tax loss harvesting the last couple of months. I'm certainly not changing my investment plan. I worked fine in 2008-2009, it would have worked fine in every bear market prior to that, and if this downturn turns into a bear market (I don't even think it's hit correction status yet, has it?) it will mostly likely work for it too.
            Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011


            • #7

              Not all hedgefunds are created equally. You might want to do a little research before you generalize. I made great money in a hedgefund last year when most people broke even or made little gains.
              Click to expand...

              n = 1


              For every anecdotal "I made great money" there are 19 stories of losing to the market. Yes of course not all hedge funds are created equally, but for you think you are a superior picker of hedge fund managers is naive. You are picking against the Goldman's of the world and you got lucky this past year. Hedge funds can be viewed as actively managed funds on a greater risk/expense scale, and over time (20-30 years if I remember correctly), passive management beats active management something like 95% of the time with fees included.


              Think about any test you've ever taken. Would you have taken 95th percentile on your Organic Chemistry final if your professor gave you that option before taking the test? Or more accurately, would you take a 95th percentile for a test on a subject you know little about (just like we all know little about picking the 'correct' hedge fund manager)? As a high-income earner, why take the risk on the chance that you will be in the top 5% over your investing lifetime when history shows that passive gives you a return way above average?


              • #8
                I have to admit it's been a little disappointing. I'm just a year out of residency, so last year was the first one I actually paid attention to our investments and seeing a 2% growth is a little disheartening. But nonetheless, we will continue to shovel money away into index funds in the 401k and we will max them out (our first time ever being able to do this!) this year, so I guess it's not swaying us to make any changes. We will just hold the course and hope the market picks up sometime in the next 30 years ;-) The advantage of being young, I suppose.


                • #9
                  I remind myself that stocks are now on sale compared to recent highs. Dr. Bernstein said it best (as he often does): "the young investor should get down on his or her knees and pray for a brutal bear market, which will enable him or her to buy stock shares cheaply. At the opposite end of the spectrum, stocks are extremely risky for the retiree; a long bear market at the beginning of retirement can quickly sink a nest egg if it's too aggressively invested."

                  Thankfully we have a few more years to go before retirement!


                  • #10
                    85% of hedge funds underperform the mkts

                    their results are not published

                    many GO UNDER-I do not like my stocks to go bankrupt

                    stick to the passive approach as no one is smarter than the mkts


                    • #11
                      Not easy seeing my portfolio shrinking/staying flat but I am actually hoping for a large correction so I can buy more.  I think most of us younger ones are in the same boat.


                      • #12
                        This should be the first year I max out my 4576 and a large chunk of 401k as well. Would be great to get some good bargains. If a brutal bear market would come along in the next few years it would be idea. Cheap first house investment, and lots of cheap stock investments as well to start a career.


                        • #13
                          Do nothing when volatile except stay with the program. Opportunity is in bear markets. "You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time... - " Shelby Cullom Davis

                          We are just inside a correction (drop of at least 10%) but not near a bear yet (drop of at least 20%). On average, markets drop 14.1% intra-year but we've become a bit complacent over the past 6 years. This is nothing to be excited about. If you're in school or even residency, the last 6 years have been your reality for all practical purposes.

                          Good link about what you see/read/hear in financial media. Wish they would update it another couple of years, though.

                          For those of you who are really scared of a lengthy bear market (I almost abbreviated bear market ops: ), take a look at this chart of bears since the end of WWII. We keep small copies laminated and ask clients to keep on their refrigerators. 1976 & 1998 didn't exactly count, but close enough. Note the length of each run. Then note the peak and trough in 1946 - 49.
                          Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087


                          • #14
                            starting my career in houston, in an insanely over-valued real estate market? bring on the bear and $20 / barrel WTI


                            • #15
                              Lots of chances to buy from the highs is what it means. I was just over 85% cash to start the year, and have had all of my GTC limits hit as of today. Its probably not the bottom, but it certainly isnt the top. Its about time the market chilled and let the economy catch up. Hopefully get this years contribution in at similar or better %s off. If you have a long term horizon this is great.