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Is it time to market time?

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  • Is it time to market time?

    who else feels like it might be time to deviate from your plan and sell off equities to lock in profits and then wait for an impending crash? I think I will do this for some of our holdings and just let the $’s sit in short term treasury fund. Basically overweight bonds and rebalancing to original AA once things in the market fall apart. I honestly can not see things continuing as is in the next 2 years. If things do not go to ************************ in a hand-basket, will just go back to normal AA in a few years. Could miss out on some gains, but have a potential for bigger gains (IMHO).

  • #2
    No.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
      No.
      +1

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      • #4
        These posts came up more often before March. If this year hasn't taught you how crazy it is trying to predict the price of the stock market, I'm not sure what else to tell you.

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        • #5
          I worry about a dotcom 2.0 but don't think anything permanent will happen before the election. I agree 2021 and 2022 may be of concern. I have already been raising quite a bit of dry gunpowder reserves and increasing non-market investments but have not seen enough to pull out existing market investments. Might also be a good time to shift towards paying down debt if you have any. I've gone debt free as well.

          However, I like to see evidence first before such a major adjust and miss out on returns as the period before a crash tends to create healthy returns.

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          • #6
            The thinking behind this isn’t too dissimilar to all the ‘I’m an incoming resident and my situation is different because...so I think I should buy a house’ posts. I get the urge to market time, I really do. Just like in medicine, many times the right thing to do (and many times the hardest) is nothing.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by ShredtheGnar View Post
              who else feels like it might be time to deviate from your plan and sell off equities to lock in profits and then wait for an impending crash? I think I will do this for some of our holdings and just let the $’s sit in short term treasury fund. Basically overweight bonds and rebalancing to original AA once things in the market fall apart. I honestly can not see things continuing as is in the next 2 years. If things do not go to ************************ in a hand-basket, will just go back to normal AA in a few years. Could miss out on some gains, but have a potential for bigger gains (IMHO).
              You sound the poster child for the typical investor. Stop it.
              Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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              • #8
                I am probably thinking more along the lines of risk assessment adjustments. Was thinking of going from 80/20 to 70/30, but would go back to the 80/20 if things don’t completely crash. I just feel there could be a big opportunity to buy in the near future. Feels like this time things are actually different. How long has it been since we have actually had an event that effected the entire world in such a dramatic fashion?

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by ShredtheGnar View Post
                  Feels like this time things are actually different.
                  Famous last words.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ShredtheGnar View Post
                    who else feels like it might be time to deviate from your plan and sell off equities to lock in profits and then wait for an impending crash? I think I will do this for some of our holdings and just let the $’s sit in short term treasury fund. Basically overweight bonds and rebalancing to original AA once things in the market fall apart. I honestly can not see things continuing as is in the next 2 years. If things do not go to ************************ in a hand-basket, will just go back to normal AA in a few years. Could miss out on some gains, but have a potential for bigger gains (IMHO).
                    ok. so do it (its the wrong move btw).
                    but write it down. how much did you move, what date, NAV, etc.
                    then you compare to relevant indexes, ongoing investments, dividends, etc....
                    then you submit the XIRR data in the end.

                    and well see......

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Peds View Post

                      ok. so do it (its the wrong move btw).
                      but write it down. how much did you move, what date, NAV, etc.
                      then you compare to relevant indexes, ongoing investments, dividends, etc....
                      then you submit the XIRR data in the end.

                      and well see......
                      Better yet, post the results here for posterity and accountability.

                      Hope your endeavor works out better than it did for this poor chap: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=173073

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Lithium View Post

                        Better yet, post the results here for posterity and accountability.

                        Hope your endeavor works out better than it did for this poor chap: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=173073
                        agree. it has to hurt.....thats the main reason people think they are right. no one proves why....

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                        • #13
                          I always tell people when you try to time the market, you have to make two correct decisions. 1) When to get out 2) When to get back in

                          There is no bell that rings at the top or the bottom and it's a lot easier said than done with timing the market. Peter Lynch said it best, "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”

                          There will always be stress with investing. When you're fully invested, you worry about the market correcting. When you're sitting in cash, you're worried about missing the upside.

                          A better approach is to invest based on the time horizon of when you need the money and then get out of your own way and let your investments work for you over time.
                          Andrew Musbach, CFP® | Co-Founder & Financial Advisor at MD Wealth Management, LLC | Podcast Host - The Physician's Guide to Financial Wellness

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                          • #14
                            Besides being a bad financial move, this just seems like an awful way to live...worrying about what is going to happen, second guessing yourself. Set a plan and stick with it. OP, perhaps your AA is too aggressive for your internal riskometer.

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                            • #15
                              Well, figured that the worst that could happen is 10% of current holdings will not grow over a 2 year period that would have if left alone. Doubt that the market could go up but so much considering where we are (l could be wrong). What could be the gains if that 10% is put back into a market that has been beat down 30+%?

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