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Being Chicken Little or what Harry Dent is up to now

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  • Being Chicken Little or what Harry Dent is up to now

    In case you missed Ben Carlson's January article, How to Sell Books Like Harry Dent, it's a good reminder that the internet is the Wild Wild West when it comes to investing advice. Fun read to start your weekend.
    Working to protect good doctors from bad advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

  • #2
    interesting - thanks!

    Comment


    • #3
      The internet is the Wild West for everything, including entrepreneurship.

      There's a dentist who started a "blog"/subscription newsletter 6 months ago who posted a link on the site yesterday. He charges $199 a year for emails telling you whether to buy, hold, or sell using a trend-following system. The disclaimers cracked me up.



       

      Great question, could it? It could. But there is obviously no guarantee.

      So....$199 a year for a monthly email where only one of every 30 or so tells you to do anything? Seems a little steep. Why not just send the one email every couple of years? Oh yea, because everyone would agree that $500 an email is a little steep.



      Auto-renewal. Threats of suit. Very entrepreneurial. You've gotta admire it like I admire advisors who have managed to fill up their entire AUM practice with very price insensitive high-earning docs.





      The site is apparently six months old. So despite the claims of success, what is really going on here is that this dentist did some back-testing using a trend-following system and picked a method that worked really well over the last 25 years. Back-testing, of course, has all the same issues as retrospective data in a scientific study.

      But the disclaimer was my favorite part. After selling this email newsletter for $199 a year, he says this about it



      "None of this is a recommendation for....management of your investments?" What the heck is it then? Just because you say it isn't doesn't mean it isn't.

      It may be correct, it may be dead wrong. It's shared as a courtesy. But whether it is correct or dead wrong, this "courtesy" will run you $199 a year.

      Now don't get me wrong. Trend-following using a simple, mechanical system like a 150 day moving average using low-cost index funds or ETFs, especially within a retirement account, certainly isn't the worst way to invest. I put it in a category with "Bank on Yourself", using a 30 year mortgage instead of a 15 in order to invest more, and Reverse Mortgages for wealthy people hoping to increase retirement spending efficiency. It's probably fine for some people, probably won't hurt you much, might help a little, and isn't going to cost you too much. But terribly overhyped and oversold. I mean, if this guy really wanted to provide a "courtesy," he'd write a single blog post about how the system works and let people do it themselves. Over 30 years, they would save $6000 plus however much the system helped them. His costs would be $50 a year for hosting and domain and as long as his email list was under 2000, even the emails would be free. But it's the Wild West Investing/Entrepreneurial internet. By doing it this way he gets a nice little side income that may even outpace his clinical income.
      Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

      Comment


      • #4
        Is he the one who just posted on your blog that you responded to? I got a kick out of that.
        Working to protect good doctors from bad advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

        Comment


        • #5
          Except its much more profitable and consistent to get 200/month than follow your own system, risk is reputational only, and these guys dont care. Guarantee he is cribbing his system from a free online source or simply using portfolio visualizer, etc...

          Comment


          • #6




            Except its much more profitable and consistent to get 200/month than follow your own system, risk is reputational only, and these guys dont care. Guarantee he is cribbing his system from a free online source or simply using portfolio visualizer, etc…
            Click to expand...


            So is the secret to sign up for his newsletter, then reproduce it and sell it yourself undercover?
            Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

            Comment


            • #7




              The internet is the Wild West for everything, including entrepreneurship.

              There’s a dentist who started a “blog”/subscription newsletter 6 months ago who posted a link on the site yesterday. He charges $199 a year for emails telling you whether to buy, hold, or sell using a trend-following system. The disclaimers cracked me up.



               

              Great question, could it? It could. But there is obviously no guarantee.

              So….$199 a year for a monthly email where only one of every 30 or so tells you to do anything? Seems a little steep. Why not just send the one email every couple of years? Oh yea, because everyone would agree that $500 an email is a little steep.



              Auto-renewal. Threats of suit. Very entrepreneurial. You’ve gotta admire it like I admire advisors who have managed to fill up their entire AUM practice with very price insensitive high-earning docs.





              The site is apparently six months old. So despite the claims of success, what is really going on here is that this dentist did some back-testing using a trend-following system and picked a method that worked really well over the last 25 years. Back-testing, of course, has all the same issues as retrospective data in a scientific study.

              But the disclaimer was my favorite part. After selling this email newsletter for $199 a year, he says this about it



              “None of this is a recommendation for….management of your investments?” What the heck is it then? Just because you say it isn’t doesn’t mean it isn’t.

              It may be correct, it may be dead wrong. It’s shared as a courtesy. But whether it is correct or dead wrong, this “courtesy” will run you $199 a year.

              Now don’t get me wrong. Trend-following using a simple, mechanical system like a 150 day moving average using low-cost index funds or ETFs, especially within a retirement account, certainly isn’t the worst way to invest. I put it in a category with “Bank on Yourself”, using a 30 year mortgage instead of a 15 in order to invest more, and Reverse Mortgages for wealthy people hoping to increase retirement spending efficiency. It’s probably fine for some people, probably won’t hurt you much, might help a little, and isn’t going to cost you too much. But terribly overhyped and oversold. I mean, if this guy really wanted to provide a “courtesy,” he’d write a single blog post about how the system works and let people do it themselves. Over 30 years, they would save $6000 plus however much the system helped them. His costs would be $50 a year for hosting and domain and as long as his email list was under 2000, even the emails would be free. But it’s the Wild West Investing/Entrepreneurial internet. By doing it this way he gets a nice little side income that may even outpace his clinical income.
              Click to expand...


              This is fine and all but the only issue I have with this analysis is that it sounds "my way or the highway". Whatever this guy is doing, is he running a ponzi scheme? embezzling money? No. Nothing illegal. Buyer beware. He certainly ain't forcing you to sign up. If he has clients signing up then kudos to him. He is banking like you are banking.

              By the way general question: what if these AUM advisors lose money for their clients? Are they sueable? If not then what is the difference between the AUM advisors your refer to vs this guy. Only thing I see is semantics. Both aren't taking responsibility.

              Comment


              • #8







                The internet is the Wild West for everything, including entrepreneurship.

                There’s a dentist who started a “blog”/subscription newsletter 6 months ago who posted a link on the site yesterday. He charges $199 a year for emails telling you whether to buy, hold, or sell using a trend-following system. The disclaimers cracked me up.



                 

                Great question, could it? It could. But there is obviously no guarantee.

                So….$199 a year for a monthly email where only one of every 30 or so tells you to do anything? Seems a little steep. Why not just send the one email every couple of years? Oh yea, because everyone would agree that $500 an email is a little steep.



                Auto-renewal. Threats of suit. Very entrepreneurial. You’ve gotta admire it like I admire advisors who have managed to fill up their entire AUM practice with very price insensitive high-earning docs.





                The site is apparently six months old. So despite the claims of success, what is really going on here is that this dentist did some back-testing using a trend-following system and picked a method that worked really well over the last 25 years. Back-testing, of course, has all the same issues as retrospective data in a scientific study.

                But the disclaimer was my favorite part. After selling this email newsletter for $199 a year, he says this about it



                “None of this is a recommendation for….management of your investments?” What the heck is it then? Just because you say it isn’t doesn’t mean it isn’t.

                It may be correct, it may be dead wrong. It’s shared as a courtesy. But whether it is correct or dead wrong, this “courtesy” will run you $199 a year.

                Now don’t get me wrong. Trend-following using a simple, mechanical system like a 150 day moving average using low-cost index funds or ETFs, especially within a retirement account, certainly isn’t the worst way to invest. I put it in a category with “Bank on Yourself”, using a 30 year mortgage instead of a 15 in order to invest more, and Reverse Mortgages for wealthy people hoping to increase retirement spending efficiency. It’s probably fine for some people, probably won’t hurt you much, might help a little, and isn’t going to cost you too much. But terribly overhyped and oversold. I mean, if this guy really wanted to provide a “courtesy,” he’d write a single blog post about how the system works and let people do it themselves. Over 30 years, they would save $6000 plus however much the system helped them. His costs would be $50 a year for hosting and domain and as long as his email list was under 2000, even the emails would be free. But it’s the Wild West Investing/Entrepreneurial internet. By doing it this way he gets a nice little side income that may even outpace his clinical income.
                Click to expand…


                This is fine and all but the only issue I have with this analysis is that it sounds “my way or the highway”. Whatever this guy is doing, is he running a ponzi scheme? embezzling money? No. Nothing illegal. Buyer beware. He certainly ain’t forcing you to sign up. If he has clients signing up then kudos to him. He is banking like you are banking.

                By the way general question: what if these AUM advisors lose money for their clients? Are they sueable? If not then what is the difference between the AUM advisors your refer to vs this guy. Only thing I see is semantics. Both aren’t taking responsibility.
                Click to expand...


                He doesnt even have any kind of investment acronym, even though some are very easy. Hes taking money directly out of peoples pockets, not providing content/eyeballs that makes a third party want to pay to be associated with him. Part of the point was you cant just say, "sign here, you release all of your rights" and have it work, he is still going to be liable for some things. Sure its a deterrant but even on large chain release forms, you cant release all your protections that easily.

                Comment


                • #9
                  But still curious - what happens to AUM managers who lose money. Like can people sue them/have tried? if not WHY are you paying them money? I just don't see difference between internet guy vs some asset manager then. Its plain advice. Who care if there is CFA etc etc behind your name.

                  Interested in FA with AUM's liability.

                  Comment


                  • #10







                    The internet is the Wild West for everything, including entrepreneurship.

                    There’s a dentist who started a “blog”/subscription newsletter 6 months ago who posted a link on the site yesterday. He charges $199 a year for emails telling you whether to buy, hold, or sell using a trend-following system. The disclaimers cracked me up.



                     

                    Great question, could it? It could. But there is obviously no guarantee.

                    So….$199 a year for a monthly email where only one of every 30 or so tells you to do anything? Seems a little steep. Why not just send the one email every couple of years? Oh yea, because everyone would agree that $500 an email is a little steep.



                    Auto-renewal. Threats of suit. Very entrepreneurial. You’ve gotta admire it like I admire advisors who have managed to fill up their entire AUM practice with very price insensitive high-earning docs.





                    The site is apparently six months old. So despite the claims of success, what is really going on here is that this dentist did some back-testing using a trend-following system and picked a method that worked really well over the last 25 years. Back-testing, of course, has all the same issues as retrospective data in a scientific study.

                    But the disclaimer was my favorite part. After selling this email newsletter for $199 a year, he says this about it



                    “None of this is a recommendation for….management of your investments?” What the heck is it then? Just because you say it isn’t doesn’t mean it isn’t.

                    It may be correct, it may be dead wrong. It’s shared as a courtesy. But whether it is correct or dead wrong, this “courtesy” will run you $199 a year.

                    Now don’t get me wrong. Trend-following using a simple, mechanical system like a 150 day moving average using low-cost index funds or ETFs, especially within a retirement account, certainly isn’t the worst way to invest. I put it in a category with “Bank on Yourself”, using a 30 year mortgage instead of a 15 in order to invest more, and Reverse Mortgages for wealthy people hoping to increase retirement spending efficiency. It’s probably fine for some people, probably won’t hurt you much, might help a little, and isn’t going to cost you too much. But terribly overhyped and oversold. I mean, if this guy really wanted to provide a “courtesy,” he’d write a single blog post about how the system works and let people do it themselves. Over 30 years, they would save $6000 plus however much the system helped them. His costs would be $50 a year for hosting and domain and as long as his email list was under 2000, even the emails would be free. But it’s the Wild West Investing/Entrepreneurial internet. By doing it this way he gets a nice little side income that may even outpace his clinical income.
                    Click to expand…


                    This is fine and all but the only issue I have with this analysis is that it sounds “my way or the highway”. Whatever this guy is doing, is he running a ponzi scheme? embezzling money? No. Nothing illegal. Buyer beware. He certainly ain’t forcing you to sign up. If he has clients signing up then kudos to him. He is banking like you are banking.

                    By the way general question: what if these AUM advisors lose money for their clients? Are they sueable? If not then what is the difference between the AUM advisors your refer to vs this guy. Only thing I see is semantics. Both aren’t taking responsibility.
                    Click to expand...


                    You can sue for bad advice, absolutely. You can't sue for "losing money" though.
                    Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

                    Comment


                    • #11




                      But still curious – what happens to AUM managers who lose money. Like can people sue them/have tried? if not WHY are you paying them money? I just don’t see difference between internet guy vs some asset manager then. Its plain advice. Who care if there is CFA etc etc behind your name.

                      Interested in FA with AUM’s liability.
                      Click to expand...


                      Depending on the type of AUM manager you can and people have sued for causing them to pay fees, placing them into riskier investments than they desire, and underperform etc...Thats why fiduciary standard matters, and ERISA exists as well. While most may not exercise their legal options, youre kind of leaving yourself exposed with just a website and likely little precedent.

                      To your overall point there isnt a lot of difference in internet guy vs. some financial providers as anyone can basically set up shop and manage money if they can attract enough assets. It is a little bit the wild west and buyer beware.

                      The above example was just funny for its audacity and simplicity, I mean 11 full trades in 26 years? Thats hardly a system that could sell well, people need some activity to feel like the system has a point that makes it work. His system is basically buy and hold with a minor tweak, that will not keep people engaged. The returns and number of trades is similar to a basic spy/tlt trend/momentum system based on 200 dma or some such. It isnt even presented partly complex, which all good sales pitches should have some.

                      I could easily whip up a paragraph with a backtested system that sounds much more exciting and promising, and complex (yet simplified so you understand the concept) enough that you dont want to implement it yourself.

                      Comment


                      • #12










                        The internet is the Wild West for everything, including entrepreneurship.

                        There’s a dentist who started a “blog”/subscription newsletter 6 months ago who posted a link on the site yesterday. He charges $199 a year for emails telling you whether to buy, hold, or sell using a trend-following system. The disclaimers cracked me up.



                         

                        Great question, could it? It could. But there is obviously no guarantee.

                        So….$199 a year for a monthly email where only one of every 30 or so tells you to do anything? Seems a little steep. Why not just send the one email every couple of years? Oh yea, because everyone would agree that $500 an email is a little steep.



                        Auto-renewal. Threats of suit. Very entrepreneurial. You’ve gotta admire it like I admire advisors who have managed to fill up their entire AUM practice with very price insensitive high-earning docs.





                        The site is apparently six months old. So despite the claims of success, what is really going on here is that this dentist did some back-testing using a trend-following system and picked a method that worked really well over the last 25 years. Back-testing, of course, has all the same issues as retrospective data in a scientific study.

                        But the disclaimer was my favorite part. After selling this email newsletter for $199 a year, he says this about it



                        “None of this is a recommendation for….management of your investments?” What the heck is it then? Just because you say it isn’t doesn’t mean it isn’t.

                        It may be correct, it may be dead wrong. It’s shared as a courtesy. But whether it is correct or dead wrong, this “courtesy” will run you $199 a year.

                        Now don’t get me wrong. Trend-following using a simple, mechanical system like a 150 day moving average using low-cost index funds or ETFs, especially within a retirement account, certainly isn’t the worst way to invest. I put it in a category with “Bank on Yourself”, using a 30 year mortgage instead of a 15 in order to invest more, and Reverse Mortgages for wealthy people hoping to increase retirement spending efficiency. It’s probably fine for some people, probably won’t hurt you much, might help a little, and isn’t going to cost you too much. But terribly overhyped and oversold. I mean, if this guy really wanted to provide a “courtesy,” he’d write a single blog post about how the system works and let people do it themselves. Over 30 years, they would save $6000 plus however much the system helped them. His costs would be $50 a year for hosting and domain and as long as his email list was under 2000, even the emails would be free. But it’s the Wild West Investing/Entrepreneurial internet. By doing it this way he gets a nice little side income that may even outpace his clinical income.
                        Click to expand…


                        This is fine and all but the only issue I have with this analysis is that it sounds “my way or the highway”. Whatever this guy is doing, is he running a ponzi scheme? embezzling money? No. Nothing illegal. Buyer beware. He certainly ain’t forcing you to sign up. If he has clients signing up then kudos to him. He is banking like you are banking.

                        By the way general question: what if these AUM advisors lose money for their clients? Are they sueable? If not then what is the difference between the AUM advisors your refer to vs this guy. Only thing I see is semantics. Both aren’t taking responsibility.
                        Click to expand…


                        You can sue for bad advice, absolutely. You can’t sue for “losing money” though.
                        Click to expand...


                        Oh ok, then he can be in deep doo doo. Got it. As an aside WCI, your advice has been good, but aren't you concerned some idiot doctor sues you for something you wrote in your blog post? like is there a risk ?

                        I am mostly asking out of learning about these things because they are interesting.

                         

                        Thanks.

                        Comment


                        • #13







                          But still curious – what happens to AUM managers who lose money. Like can people sue them/have tried? if not WHY are you paying them money? I just don’t see difference between internet guy vs some asset manager then. Its plain advice. Who care if there is CFA etc etc behind your name.

                          Interested in FA with AUM’s liability.
                          Click to expand…


                          Depending on the type of AUM manager you can and people have sued for causing them to pay fees, placing them into riskier investments than they desire, and underperform etc…Thats why fiduciary standard matters, and ERISA exists as well. While most may not exercise their legal options, youre kind of leaving yourself exposed with just a website and likely little precedent.

                          To your overall point there isnt a lot of difference in internet guy vs. some financial providers as anyone can basically set up shop and manage money if they can attract enough assets. It is a little bit the wild west and buyer beware.

                          The above example was just funny for its audacity and simplicity, I mean 11 full trades in 26 years? Thats hardly a system that could sell well, people need some activity to feel like the system has a point that makes it work. His system is basically buy and hold with a minor tweak, that will not keep people engaged. The returns and number of trades is similar to a basic spy/tlt trend/momentum system based on 200 dma or some such. It isnt even presented partly complex, which all good sales pitches should have some.

                          I could easily whip up a paragraph with a backtested system that sounds much more exciting and promising, and complex (yet simplified so you understand the concept) enough that you dont want to implement it yourself.
                          Click to expand...


                          Zaphod you should try it for fun. I bet you'll get clicks and have some sign up. lol THAT would be the wild in the wild west. Heck if I knew as much as you about stock lingo I would've tried it in jest

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Last talk I gave I had the old discloures and conflict of interest page at the beginning, and made sure it was known it was for educational purposes only, not advice, etc...

                            Its definitely something you think about.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Playing devil's advocate from the perspective of the seller, this would be a way for a w-2 kind of person to claim home office, computer, internet, mobile phone, etc.

                              Comment

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