Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Bitcoin - Lets see if WCI's head explodes

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #76
    Not weird - very on-brand for BTC. If you get into this market, you have to accept 20, 30, 50, even 80% swings. That's what makes it fun!

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post
      weird 15% rapid drop in BTC I assume has something to do the the halving that occurred?
      It may have had to do with the halving. Tough to say, but there may have been a little pre-halving run up that someone was expecting and then dumped a load all at once to pocket some cash. Very difficult to say that confidently though. Unlike Vae above, I do not think 15-80% rapid drops are fun. Sure 15-80% gains in a few minutes are great but so is winning the lottery. I do however accept these swings/volatility as part of the ride and remain mostly unemotional about it.

      Comment


      • #78
        Another reason why it is purely speculative. Pretty much any other stock will have a reason for big gains/drops. Bitcoin does whatever it wants and nobody knows why. Not even people who have researched it for years (looking at you NapoleanDynamite ) knows, which isn't comforting or reassuring when they talk about predictions.

        Comment


        • #79
          Let me re-phrase....Bitcoin dropped 15% because there was a lot more selling than buying over a short period of time. Bitcoin is also still being produced. So when the combination of production and selling outnumbers the buying the price will drop. The question becomes why was someone/fund etc selling a very large amount or why did all people cease buying it at the same time(this would not cause a sharp price drop but technically possible)?

          There are so many factors in this that anything I say could be wrong....which is why I hesitate to answer the question of why. However, it is similar with any stock. Many times stock prices drop and you don't know why. Maybe a large fund with a very large position decides to exit their position in said stock. Maybe one of the owners of the company decides he wants to buy a new yacht and sells off a bunch of his stock. Both of these events would likely cause a significant drop in stock price. You would't know why (in the case of the fund) and you would only find out later in the case of the owner selling shares (reported to the SEC).

          The same events can occur with BTC. However, at this point the market cap and fact that large numbers of BTC are still owned by few people/funds can cause significant shifts or volatility in it's price. This volatility will decrease with time, but there will always be shifts up and down. So volatility is explainable...but to explain 1 specific instance of a drop or gain in price is purely speculation whether it be an individual stock or BTC (short of a drop in the entire market with stocks).

          If I were tracking the ledger I could tell you what sell caused this...but I don't track the entire ledger of block chain to specify who is selling and when, and then also speculate why they might be selling. That is not a worthwhile exercise IMO.

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post
            Let me re-phrase....Bitcoin dropped 15% because there was a lot more selling than buying over a short period of time. Bitcoin is also still being produced. So when the combination of production and selling outnumbers the buying the price will drop. The question becomes why was someone/fund etc selling a very large amount or why did all people cease buying it at the same time(this would not cause a sharp price drop but technically possible)?

            There are so many factors in this that anything I say could be wrong....which is why I hesitate to answer the question of why. However, it is similar with any stock. Many times stock prices drop and you don't know why. Maybe a large fund with a very large position decides to exit their position in said stock. Maybe one of the owners of the company decides he wants to buy a new yacht and sells off a bunch of his stock. Both of these events would likely cause a significant drop in stock price. You would't know why (in the case of the fund) and you would only find out later in the case of the owner selling shares (reported to the SEC).

            The same events can occur with BTC. However, at this point the market cap and fact that large numbers of BTC are still owned by few people/funds can cause significant shifts or volatility in it's price. This volatility will decrease with time, but there will always be shifts up and down. So volatility is explainable...but to explain 1 specific instance of a drop or gain in price is purely speculation whether it be an individual stock or BTC (short of a drop in the entire market with stocks).

            If I were tracking the ledger I could tell you what sell caused this...but I don't track the entire ledger of block chain to specify who is selling and when, and then also speculate why they might be selling. That is not a worthwhile exercise IMO.
            those examples you cite with stocks, that doesn't happen. If you can show me an example, I'll stand corrected.

            The BTC price fell of the edge of the table Sunday midnight.

            A concern I would have were I seriously contemplating buying bitcoin is that the market is manipulated

            Comment


            • #81
              Just because something is limited and rare does not mean it has value. If I go create a few Lordosis Nickles I doubt I would get much for them. It is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Right now people are willing to pay for Bitcoin. I do not have confidence that it will continue.

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

                those examples you cite with stocks, that doesn't happen. If you can show me an example, I'll stand corrected.

                The BTC price fell of the edge of the table Sunday midnight.

                A concern I would have were I seriously contemplating buying bitcoin is that the market is manipulated
                Sunday Midnight US time is Monday morning in much of the world. BTC is traded globally.

                I will give you the concern that you have as it relates to manipulation....and there is little I can do to quell that concern....however, I would argue the current system is far more manipulated than anything in BTC. That is a macroeconomics discussion that we don't need to go down.

                As for stocks it does happen. Maybe not over the course of 30 minutes...but it does happen. Here are the prices of an individual stock recently with the dates:
                2/21: $901
                2/28: $667 (down 26% in 1 week)
                3/18: $361 (down 60% in less than a month)

                Dow over the same 2/21 - 3/18 time period was down 32%. Why was this stock down twice as much as Dow? "Manipulation"? Lots of reasons. But it was.

                This is stock I used to own...I owned it from a price of $88 all the way up to a price of $340 before I sold out my last position in the stock. (man have I been kicking myself lately) The stock will likely be in the S/P 500 by the end of 2020. That stock: TSLA.

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by Lordosis View Post
                  Just because something is limited and rare does not mean it has value. If I go create a few Lordosis Nickles I doubt I would get much for them. It is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Right now people are willing to pay for Bitcoin. I do not have confidence that it will continue.
                  What's the ratio of Lordosis nickels to Schrute bucks?

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post

                    Sunday Midnight US time is Monday morning in much of the world. BTC is traded globally.

                    I will give you the concern that you have as it relates to manipulation....and there is little I can do to quell that concern....however, I would argue the current system is far more manipulated than anything in BTC. That is a macroeconomics discussion that we don't need to go down.

                    As for stocks it does happen. Maybe not over the course of 30 minutes...but it does happen. Here are the prices of an individual stock recently with the dates:
                    2/21: $901
                    2/28: $667 (down 26% in 1 week)
                    3/18: $361 (down 60% in less than a month)

                    Dow over the same 2/21 - 3/18 time period was down 32%. Why was this stock down twice as much as Dow? "Manipulation"? Lots of reasons. But it was.

                    This is stock I used to own...I owned it from a price of $88 all the way up to a price of $340 before I sold out my last position in the stock. (man have I been kicking myself lately) The stock will likely be in the S/P 500 by the end of 2020. That stock: TSLA.
                    The current system is more manipulated than Bitcoin? You've gone off the rockers with that. Is there insider trading, etc? Absolutely, but these people get investigated and charged. Has anyone been charged for Bitcoin fraud? Honest question because I don't know but I know Bitcoin fraud has happened. Sometimes I think you just exaggerate what you really think because your statements and your investing actions don't match up.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Market Cap of BTC is around 160 Billion in USD's. For the entire world.

                      The US government just dumped >3 Trillion into the US market alone. Forget about what Europe and Asia are doing. If you do not think the current market is being manipulated then I would argue you are being blind to the obvious. I recognize and accept the manipulation for what it is and try to financially plan accordingly.

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by Lordosis View Post
                        Just because something is limited and rare does not mean it has value. If I go create a few Lordosis Nickles I doubt I would get much for them. It is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Right now people are willing to pay for Bitcoin. I do not have confidence that it will continue.
                        Yes, but if you created Lordosis Nickels, and then millions of people were using them a few years later as a store of value or for transactions, then they would actually have "value", and that's the case right now with bitcoin. I'm not sure if that continues into the future, but I'm not betting against it either, especially with so many unstable fiat currencies in the world.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          US equities and fixed income market is certainly manipulated. Purposefully, to try to prevent the economy from tanking. Whether right or wrong I've no clue, but Fed is buying up all sorts of assets, providing liquidity, printing money.

                          Different than what could be happening with BTC. Where there are some believe that a few whales manipulate the price for their own benefit.

                          Whatever. Simply thought the BTC experts might have something smart to say about that blip on the price chart.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Click image for larger version

Name:	
Views:	0
Size:	159.1 KB
ID:	205690
                            Last edited by Tim; 05-12-2020, 01:28 PM. Reason: FSBO- Unique dollar bill. Minimum offer $10k

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Perry Ict View Post

                              Yes, but if you created Lordosis Nickels, and then millions of people were using them a few years later as a store of value or for transactions, then they would actually have "value", and that's the case right now with bitcoin. I'm not sure if that continues into the future, but I'm not betting against it either, especially with so many unstable fiat currencies in the world.
                              And when Lordosis Nickels are the world currency anyone holding onto Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Peds Dimes are going to be sorry.


                              Comment


                              • #90
                                I'm eagerly awaiting the day I can get my hands on some Lordosis Nickels.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X