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  • #61
    I am content to sit this one out.

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    • #62
      I have trouble wrapping my mind around bitcoin as a hard asset. Gold I understand but bitcoin?

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      • #63
        I don't totally understand bitcoin, but then, I don't really completely understand why the dollar (or any other fiat currency) holds the value it does. I remember traveling to another country over a year ago, and noticing a sign at a cash register stating that they accept bitcoin (on the other hand I don't know whether or not they accepted dollars since that wasn't the local currency). So I'm keeping an open mind about it.

        Do I think it's speculative and more risky than most stocks? Probably. But who am I to rule anything out.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post
          So...
          In the past 2-3 years I have spent a lot of time learning about Bitcoin. In the process, I have actually learned a lot about the market, macro economics, fiat currencies, and history. And although 3 years ago I stated that I would never invest in Bitcoin as it was just a scam/ponzi scheme this was mostly because I didn't understand it. However, I recently decided to invest some money into Bitcoin. And yes, I do now consider it an investment and not just a gamble.

          I actually wanted to buy it about 4-9 months ago but felt the price was too high so I waited for a dip. Sure enough when the economic tide dipped in March I bought a significant amount. I bought the first signficant dip at 8K, then watched it dip to 3500 and I freaked out a little (not gonna lie) but held strong. After I got my mojo back, I bought more at 4500. Then I bought more at 6K. I now have a "position" in Bitcoin. It is not a large portion of my overall retirement fund but it is about 5% right now. I don't plan to take it more than 10% anytime soon although with the volatility it may get there soon without further investment. If it does get to more than 10% I will probably re-balance a little.

          Either way, I wanted to throw this out there for documentation. I predict Bitcoin will be somewhere between 50K and 200K over the next 2-4 years. It will not stay there, but it will get there. I believe in 2-4 years it will be significantly higher than the 9800 it is trading at right now. Feel free to call me crazy and a nut. I have thick skin. But mostly I wanted to document this as it is a disagreement that I have been having with WCI over the past 2 years in some of his posts. I do believe at this point that anyone who is not taking at least a tiny position in Bitcoin (be it 1%) is not being wise with their investment dollars.

          As mentioned, feel free to flame away, and in 2 - 4 years if BTC no longer exists or sits at 1 dollar, you can all tell me how wrong I was. However, if I am right I will come back and let you know too .

          Hope everyone is safe and enjoying the ride that is life!
          Does this mean your hobby changed from day trading to researching Bitcoin a couple years ago?

          Do whatever you want with 5% of your portfolio. You have a 7 figure income for crying out loud. You should be able to throw away $500K without it affecting you reaching your financial goals.

          I have no idea what Bitcoin will do over the next four years, but you don't seem very convinced of your prediction. If I was sure, or even fairly sure, that an asset class was going to 10X over the next 2 years I'd be putting more than 5% of my portfolio into it.

          Good luck. I sincerely hope you achieve your predicted returns. It won't affect me one way or the other as I'll be watching from the sidelines.
          Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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          • #65
            I am still day trading but not at the heavy pace I was a few years ago. I haven’t felt very good about valuations and the market as a whole over the past 1-2 years so I have mostly stayed out of it with my day trading. My retirement accounts have been riding the wave, and to be honest beating my day trading as I have kept most of my day trading money in cash the past 18-24 months. But in process of trading I have learned a lot, and continue to learn. I also started a second business 18 months ago which has taken a lot of time away from research into companies to trade. So the S/P 500 has a small advantage on the 50k that I started with a few years ago, but I have not lost money and it is still growing.

            As for Bitcoin, a gambler’s mindset is “how much could I win?”....an investors mindset should be “what can I afford to lose on any given investment if it goes bad?”

            You are correct that short of some long term major depression like event we have never seen in the US over the 20 years, I have no problems with my financial goals. However, with the knowledge I now have, I would be investing 1-10% no matter how much the dollar amount. If I was making 50k/year I would be investing a $1-500 in Bitcoin/year. I would also be saving the max I could in my 401k into the market.

            I actually see BTC as a hedge against the market and the US dollar, of which I have some significant long term concerns. I also think it not only acts as a hedge, but has significant upside potential compared to the market. And if things pan out like I think they may, then I will increase my position from 5 up to 10% over the next year. If not, I don’t see BTC going away so I do not think losses would be significant if any. I agree it is volatile, but volatility does not necessarily imply risk. Once again, I will state that I may be wrong. Thanks and stay safe my friends!

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            • #66
              Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post
              And if things pan out like I think they may, then I will increase my position from 5 up to 10% over the next year. If not, I don’t see BTC going away so I do not think losses would be significant if any. I agree it is volatile, but volatility does not necessarily imply risk.
              Why wouldn't you be jumping in more now if you truly think that? On the flip side of your volatility statement, I'd say that low risk investments aren't hardly ever volatile.

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              • #67
                Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                Why wouldn't you be jumping in more now if you truly think that? On the flip side of your volatility statement, I'd say that low risk investments aren't hardly ever volatile.
                Good question. If I am correct, there will be plenty of time to increase my investment allocation. I may not make quite as much money as if I went “all in” right away. However, if I am wrong I will save way more money by not moving “all in” right away. It’s the same reason that when I first bought BTC at 8k I didn’t buy a full 5% of my portfolio. I only bought 3% of what I knew my final amount of buy would be. I watched it drop significantly which proved my initial buy at 8k was wrong. After it bottomed around 3400, I then watched it start moving up and when it started increasing as I expected I bought more to taper the investment on its way up.

                As a correlate to stocks...If you buy any stock and it moves down, then it is proving your hypothesis for buying said stock wrong. You would be wise to not buy more. However if you buy a stock and it starts moving up, you would be wise to buy additional stock as it is proving your hypothesis correct. This all assumes you have a good reason for buying said stock. If you are only buying it on a whim, then you really have no hypothesis to base your purchase.

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post

                  Good question. If I am correct, there will be plenty of time to increase my investment allocation. I may not make quite as much money as if I went “all in” right away. However, if I am wrong I will save way more money by not moving “all in” right away. It’s the same reason that when I first bought BTC at 8k I didn’t buy a full 5% of my portfolio. I only bought 3% of what I knew my final amount of buy would be. I watched it drop significantly which proved my initial buy at 8k was wrong. After it bottomed around 3400, I then watched it start moving up and when it started increasing as I expected I bought more to taper the investment on its way up.

                  As a correlate to stocks...If you buy any stock and it moves down, then it is proving your hypothesis for buying said stock wrong. You would be wise to not buy more. However if you buy a stock and it starts moving up, you would be wise to buy additional stock as it is proving your hypothesis correct. This all assumes you have a good reason for buying said stock. If you are only buying it on a whim, then you really have no hypothesis to base your purchase.
                  If I truly thought a stock was going to go up 5x-20x over the next 2-4 years then I'd buy as much as I could as fast as I could.

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                    If I truly thought a stock was going to go up 5x-20x over the next 2-4 years then I'd buy as much as I could as fast as I could.
                    https://www.google.com/amp/s/markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-blew-it-not-investing-google-stock-2020-1-102884592

                    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dal...outputType=amp

                    If possibly the greatest investor of all time can be wrong about hits and misses, then I surely could be too. So while I believe it will dramatically increase, I am not under the assumption that I am infallible.

                    As I said....there will be plenty of time to buy more. 2-4 years is a long time.

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                    • #70
                      honest question

                      you think bitcoin will go up substantially in value as measured by price in USD.

                      Is that because you think fundamentally things will change with regards to fiat currency, USD as world reserve?

                      and in that case, would you then intend to hold your appreciated bitcoins, even as one BTC is $100k or $200k, because you think that’s actually what you will use to pay for goods and services with?

                      or you would eventually sell your appreciated bitcoins to move back to USD? But in this case you must not believe in a “the world will change” narrative

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                      • #71
                        I'll weigh in with my opinion that likely no one cares about. I also think BTC and possibly other cryptos have a place in a grown up portfolio. The main argument for its value is as an inflation hedge, particularly now where the fiscal and monetary policy is so blatantly inflationary. There are no guarantees by any means and it is certainly a volatile and risky investment, but if you believe in the story of gold then you might be inclined to also include BTC.

                        I think risky assets such as crypto tend to get overlooked and denigrated here as a function of group-think a little bit, but that may very well be for the best. For the people that can control their emotions and not get carried away, I think its worth a look.

                        OP listed a possible 6 figure price target for BTC. Many BTC "analysts" have similar predictions. One reasonably accurate model (at least thus far) has been the stock-to-flow model :https://digitalik.net/btc/

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post
                          honest question

                          you think bitcoin will go up substantially in value as measured by price in USD.

                          Is that because you think fundamentally things will change with regards to fiat currency, USD as world reserve?

                          and in that case, would you then intend to hold your appreciated bitcoins, even as one BTC is $100k or $200k, because you think that’s actually what you will use to pay for goods and services with?

                          or you would eventually sell your appreciated bitcoins to move back to USD? But in this case you must not believe in a “the world will change” narrative
                          I do believe that at some point things will change with the USDas a reserve and all fiat currency as a whole. However I have no idea when. Possibly not in my lifetime. I also only have a vague idea as to what that might look like. It is a change that is almost difficult to fathom....like changing from horse and buggy to automobile.

                          But if I am correct, and BTC goes up to 6 figures in the next few years and nothing changes with the USD and how goods are exchanged, then I would eventually exchange some of the BTC back to the USD and use it (retirement, buy a Ferrari, invest in a startup clinic in a third world country etc). This would mean there would have been a huge return on the investment. I would still hold most or all of it for quite a long time because I would only see it going up from there.

                          If it does become something I use for goods and services then it is very likely that the USD would be very weak and I would need the BTC to pay for things. Again, this is hard to imagine happening quickly, but not out of the realm of possibility over the next 5-20 years. So in the case that I am using it for goods and services, it would be worth significantly more than it is now and I would be very glad to have it as my dollars wouldn’t be worth nearly as much as they are right now.

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                          • #73
                            Originally posted by Vae Victis View Post
                            I'll weigh in with my opinion that likely no one cares about. I also think BTC and possibly other cryptos have a place in a grown up portfolio. The main argument for its value is as an inflation hedge, particularly now where the fiscal and monetary policy is so blatantly inflationary. There are no guarantees by any means and it is certainly a volatile and risky investment, but if you believe in the story of gold then you might be inclined to also include BTC.

                            I think risky assets such as crypto tend to get overlooked and denigrated here as a function of group-think a little bit, but that may very well be for the best. For the people that can control their emotions and not get carried away, I think its worth a look.

                            OP listed a possible 6 figure price target for BTC. Many BTC "analysts" have similar predictions. One reasonably accurate model (at least thus far) has been the stock-to-flow model :https://digitalik.net/btc/
                            Agree with much of this. I linked the white paper to S/F earlier in this thread although it has been updated since this link. Also, I agree and used the MAGA analogy in regards to group think. But I think it is worthwhile for people to read this as we as physicians mostly get the exact opposite opinion from almost everyone they speak to (financial advisors etc). I still do not believe crypto to be as risky now as it once was. But the swings can seem big.

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                            • #74
                              Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post
                              If you buy any stock and it moves down, then it is proving your hypothesis for buying said stock wrong. You would be wise to not buy more. However if you buy a stock and it starts moving up, you would be wise to buy additional stock as it is proving your hypothesis correct. This all assumes you have a good reason for buying said stock. If you are only buying it on a whim, then you really have no hypothesis to base your purchase.
                              That would only make sense if stocks moved in a linear way, which they don't. It doesn't "prove your hypothesis correct" because you can get faked out after a trend upward and then have a sudden move down after thinking you are correct. I'm not saying it is the wrong way to invest, just that it's not necessarily going to work better than any other method.

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                              • #75
                                weird 15% rapid drop in BTC I assume has something to do the the halving that occurred?

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