Bitcoin - Lets see if WCI's head explodes

[NapoleanDynamite]

So...
In the past 2-3 years I have spent a lot of time learning about Bitcoin. In the process, I have actually learned a lot about the market, macro economics, fiat currencies, and history. And although 3 years ago I stated that I would never invest in Bitcoin as it was just a scam/ponzi scheme this was mostly because I didn't understand it. However, I recently decided to invest some money into Bitcoin. And yes, I do now consider it an investment and not just a gamble.

I actually wanted to buy it about 4-9 months ago but felt the price was too high so I waited for a dip. Sure enough when the economic tide dipped in March I bought a significant amount. I bought the first signficant dip at 8K, then watched it dip to 3500 and I freaked out a little (not gonna lie) but held strong. After I got my mojo back, I bought more at 4500. Then I bought more at 6K. I now have a "position" in Bitcoin. It is not a large portion of my overall retirement fund but it is about 5% right now. I don't plan to take it more than 10% anytime soon although with the volatility it may get there soon without further investment. If it does get to more than 10% I will probably re-balance a little.

Either way, I wanted to throw this out there for documentation. I predict Bitcoin will be somewhere between 50K and 200K over the next 2-4 years. It will not stay there, but it will get there. I believe in 2-4 years it will be significantly higher than the 9800 it is trading at right now. Feel free to call me crazy and a nut. I have thick skin. But mostly I wanted to document this as it is a disagreement that I have been having with WCI over the past 2 years in some of his posts. I do believe at this point that anyone who is not taking at least a tiny position in Bitcoin (be it 1%) is not being wise with their investment dollars.

As mentioned, feel free to flame away, and in 2 - 4 years if BTC no longer exists or sits at 1 dollar, you can all tell me how wrong I was. However, if I am right I will come back and let you know too .

Hope everyone is safe and enjoying the ride that is life!

[CordMcNally]

And yes, I do now consider it an investment and not just a gamble.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I predict Bitcoin will be somewhere between 50K and 200K over the next 2-4 years.

That's quite the range. Do you have any data to back that up?

I do believe at this point that anyone who is not taking at least a tiny position in Bitcoin (be it 1%) is not being wise with their investment dollars.

Why?

[jacoavlu]

so you learned a lot researching. Tell us more about what you learned. Besides that you think price will go up

I think a lot of people seemed surprised at the correlation between BTC and the market in general recently. There was no “flock to bitcoin” as equities went down. Seemed rather the opposite. And now BTC is rising with the market?

[FIREshrink]

It has scarcity built into the algorithm which could prices to go up. It could also go down. There is no way to attach a value to it because it is not a productive asset. In that way it is like gold, which has basically gained zero real value for hundreds of years, except it has no industrial or cosmetic uses so it is worth even less. But why it is an investment is still a mystery.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Yes...Scarcity and hardness are part of the thought behind it. There is a lot more. I spent 2-3 years reading many books, blogs, podcasts etc. I cannot give an education on Bitcoin. As with anything, do your own research...don't listen to me. I just wanted some documentation. As long as WCI still has his website 4 years from now, these words will still be out there and easily verifiable. And yes, of course these are just like, my opinions man. -Lebowski

[SerrateAndDominate]

If you cannot give an education on Bitcoin, then can you really say you know about it? Genuine question. I'm legitimately ignorant to it and ok with that.

[Lordosis]

You truly understand a subject when you can explain it to someone else.

[jacoavlu]

I just wanted some documentation. As long as WCI still has his website 4 years from now, these words will still be out there and easily verifiable.

alright, I'll follow along. What's your BTC balance, and basis?

update quarterly please

[NapoleanDynamite]

Let me clarify....I could teach you about it...just not in a forum post. It is not simple. And I don’t have the time or energy to do so.

And I’m not going to tell you my basis and balance....but I will keep you updated with my return on investment after taxes and fees. I plan for this to be a long hold so I will have to estimate taxes as if I am withdrawing all money.

[CordMcNally]

Let me clarify....I could teach you about it...just not in a forum post. It is not simple. And I don’t have the time or energy to do so.

I can't help but think how this sounds exactly like something somebody trying to sell whole life insurance or other "complicated" financial products would say. Nonetheless, I wish you the best but for most people, avoiding Bitcoin is the proper play.

[FIREshrink]

I have a secret investment but can't tell you about it. Well, I could, but I won't. And I could tell you what I paid, so you could know how my investment was going, but I won't. I also won't tell you how much I invested, you'll have to guess at that, too. When I come back in four years and tell you how many gazillions of dollars I made, just praise me for my genius. That'll be enough.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

Doing a lot of research and reading about bitcoin is just an activity that scratches your itch. It doesn’t really help you predict the direction of the price. You buy it on feeling, and do the research to make yourself feel better. It’s how, we as humans make a lot of our decisions, and justify them, for better or worse. I’d bet that trading using technical analysis and your gut feelings on market sentiment would be your best bet if you wanted to try your hand at it.

[Lithium]

So...
I now have a "position" in Bitcoin. It is not a large portion of my overall retirement fund but it is about 5% right now. I don't plan to take it more than 10% anytime soon although with the volatility it may get there soon without further investment. If it does get to more than 10% I will probably re-balance a little.

Either way, I wanted to throw this out there for documentation. I predict Bitcoin will be somewhere between 50K and 200K over the next 2-4 years. It will not stay there, but it will get there. I believe in 2-4 years it will be significantly higher than the 9800 it is trading at right now. Feel free to call me crazy and a nut. I have thick skin. But mostly I wanted to document this as it is a disagreement that I have been having with WCI over the past 2 years in some of his posts. I do believe at this point that anyone who is not taking at least a tiny position in Bitcoin (be it 1%) is not being wise with their investment dollars.

So, if you are confident that the price of bitcoin will go up to between 5x and 20x its current price, and the rest of us are unwise for eschewing BTC, why on earth are you limiting your investment in it to only 5%? Do you really expect us to believe you have an unbeatable hand when you're only willing to throw in a few chips at the table?

[abds]

Let me clarify....I could teach you about it...just not in a forum post. It is not simple. And I don’t have the time or energy to do so.

And I’m not going to tell you my basis and balance....but I will keep you updated with my return on investment.

Sounds like EntrepreneurMD has a second screen name.

[docnews]

I find it an interesting concept so I decided to buy in back after the bubble fall from $20k/btc. Currently have 4 btc, 3 eth, 1000 xrp. I spent $33k on crypto and have a value of $35k at end of April. Thought I would've beaten with VTSAX but I didn't since it's down from August 2018 when I started buying in.