How low can we go?

[Tangler]

Have any major dividends been cut yet? I Cannot imagine that some of these companies will be able make these going forward. Maybe when they get slashed people will take the hint that the economy is struggling.

I don't know. I cannot figure it out. My life pretty much sucks compared to what it was 2 months ago. I mean, I am not dead, heck, not even sick, but my job has radically changed and become much more dangerous, I live isolated in my basement and my hospital is hurting badly from lack of elective cases. So......while I am doing intubations / lines on covid patient's I am doing it at lower pay (no overtime or bonuses etc. ) and I am one of the lucky ones (some furloughed or fired) and we are getting more and more busy. I am not eating out. I am not buying anything not essential and survival mode is the theme of my life.

The grocery store has become super annoying (crazy people ) and the restaurants I love are closed. Anyway, no one I talk to seems super optimistic. I am not sure if it is because I am in healthcare, but restaurants, bars, hair salons, all entertainment industry providers, nursing homes, hospitals, construction workers, schools, day care workers, etc. Economic dumpster fire. No one is living normal life now in my area.
I just do not know how this cannot tank it.
It just has to drop.
But..............I am often wrong. Maybe we have seen the bottom, but I do NOT believe it! Has to drop!

[CordMcNally]

Time to enhance the outperformance with the benefits of the CARES Act, expanded labor pool, and basement interest rates. Plenty of opportunities without FOMO, you just have to find them and net worth can continue to grow, irrespective of market correction.

Would you like to inform the class of your buys and sells in real time?

[EntrepreneurMD]

Would you like to inform the class of your buys and sells in real time?

The statement you just quoted has nothing to do with trading stocks, ETF's or mutual funds. Besides, in real time (before the correction) I already told you of 2017 investment expansion of CRE and associated personal business/tenant revenues, with prediction of and in advance of 2019 market melt-up and post-treasury inversion into bear market recession. The business expansion and CRE investment was discussed real time, as well as the withdrawal of new funds (dry gunpowder) from the markets before they collapsed. Did you take advantage as well?

Your entry exam grades won't get you into my financial university. We skip 101. You know the basics - don't buy high, bull/bear cycles, etc. 102 class expands investment horizons far beyond the markets, and advanced risk management principles like a treasury inversion into an 11 year old bull with classic melt-up. You're not there (yet). I'm rooting for you though - retake the entry exam (your posts). I'm confident you'll get there. Warning - we banned the Kool Aid at our university!

[CordMcNally]

The statement you just quoted has nothing to do with trading stocks, ETF's or mutual funds. Besides, in real time (before the correction) I already told you of 2017 investment expansion of CRE and associated personal business/tenant revenues, with prediction of and in advance of 2019 market melt-up and post-treasury inversion into bear market recession. The business expansion and CRE investment was discussed real time, as well as the withdrawal of new funds (dry gunpowder) from the markets before they collapsed. Did you take advantage as well?

Your entry exam grades won't get you into my financial university. We skip 101. You know the basics - don't buy high, bull/bear cycles, etc. 102 class expands investment horizons far beyond the markets, and advanced risk management principles like a treasury inversion into an 11 year old bull with classic melt-up. You're not there (yet). I'm rooting for you though - retake the entry exam (your posts). I'm confident you'll get there. Warning - we banned the Kool Aid at our university!

You could have just said 'no'.

[EntrepreneurMD]

But I said yes and gave the specific investment examples. It's interesting that some here don't consider any investments outside of the markets as investments. At some point I gotta let the blind follow the blind. They're stuck at 101. It's okay, it will get you average, not the diploma.

[Tim]

Can’t wait for all the annuities to start showing up in retirement plans, courtesy of Stretch. Fear sells. Insurance companies that market well should be cash cows.

[Zaphod]

Fed announced and released, right before claims number lol, their new facilities to lend/buy high yield and something to do with main street. Its just more ammo and more signaling by the fed that they arent going to just let people go under due to this if there is anything they can do. Which is amazing and good, but disconnects the market from the numbers you'll see on the econ front. Again, thats probably good?

It doesnt help anyone if all these businesses go under and we get a self reinforcing move lower, credits impaired, stocks lower, etc...its self fulfilling and also disconnected from reality and happens in other recessions. Maybe if the fed can prevent that we can get prices that reflect reality and not liquidity and covenant related issues. There will be some distortion, but I'd err to that side rather than massive and prolonged unemployment.

This move decreases likelihood of a lower market, but that still could happen of course. It also incrementally just gives investors more confidence, which also helps markets. We're a ways a way from any hard econ data, and wont see full q2 until after July starts. It will be a bit before anything pops up to move the market. The virus case loads should start to go down this week as well.

For technical folks, that was a 50% retrace of the recent bottom, so par for the course and in the exact expected range per those types. We shall see what happens now.

[Tangler]

Zaphod,
I hope you are right. I hope the Fed is able to keep people from bankruptcy and closing of small businesses. I do not understand exactly all the things they have done and are doing but the stock market seems to like it. I did not think it would be possible. Perhaps the fact that this is a thing with an end (worse possible case is vaccine vs herd immunity in 12-18 months) best case = social distancing and something else lucky (therapy, testing for immunity = antibodies, innovation). I mean the whole freaking world is working on the problem and as you say, something the Fed is doing seems to have investors more confident. I just think this will be more of a marathon than a sprint. I don't think we will have football in the fall etc. BUT, I hope I am wrong! I think when people realize this is going to last a while the market will drop again.

[Jack_Sparrow]

Would you like to inform the class of your buys and sells in real time?

I have posted some of my intentions to buy and sell on certain stocks on the Forum. I could pull my transaction log for the last 4 weeks (its from 3 accounts though) if you don't believe me. I also have a running excel spreadsheet of all my sells and buys to monitor my success/failure over the past month See below.
Balance High - ~$87,000, Current Balance $80,612.

	# of Shares	Price Sold	Sold Amount	Current Price 4/10/2020					# of Shares	Price Bought	Bought Amount	Current Price 4/10/2020		Gain/Loss $	Gain/Loss %'
BABA	8	205.43	1643	196.37	1571	0.04		MSFT	5	158.6	793	165	825	$ 32	4.1
Uber	30	38.285	1149	27.11	813	0.29		MSFT	6	160.5	963	165	990	27.15	2.8
BABA	7	206.32	1444	196.37	1375	0.05		SPY	8	310.0	2480	278.2	2226	-254.4	-10.3
AMD	20	44.675	894	48.38	968	-0.08		BA	15	139.9	2098	151.84	2278	179.4	8.6
RTN	12	190.12	2281	121.03	1452	0.36		NCLH	35	14.8	517		416	-100.6	-100.0
Goog	1	1209	1209	1211.45	1211	0.00		SPY	6	240.6	1444	278.2	1669	225.6	15.6
MSFT	10	150.65	1507	165	1650	-0.10		MSFT	15	147.8	2216	165	2475	258.6	11.7
AMZN	1	1785.5	1786	2023	2023	-0.13		SPY	21	238.8	5015	278.2	5842	827.4	16.5
HXL	13	71.235	926	35.42	460	0.50		SPY	3	305.5	916	278.2	835	-81.75	-8.9
EADSY	43	29.6	1273	16.8	722	0.43		QQQ	6	208.1	1248	200.86	1205	-43.32	-3.5
SPY	8	279.58	2237	278.2	2226	0.00		QQQ	7	184.0	1288	200.86	1406	118.02	9.2
BA	10	238.65	2387	151.84	1518	0.36		AMD	32	39.0	1248	48.38	1548	300.16	24.1
FB	6	180	1080	175.19	1051	0.03		BA	13	96.0	1248	151.84	1974	725.92	58.2
LMT	4	376	1504	371	1484	0.01		V	10	150.4	1504	173.69	1737	232.75	15.5
LMT	4.5	305.35	1374	371	1670	-0.21		IVR	500	3.9	1945	4.42	2210	265	13.6
MFT	10	150.6	1506	165	1650	-0.10		SBRA	150	6.0	902	13.22	1983	1081.5	120.0
TDOC	10	138	1380	146.66	1467	-0.06		TWO	250	6.3	1565	4.98	1245	-320	-20.4
FXH	20	74	1480	78.79	1576	-0.06		MITT	150	3.7	551	3.56	534	-16.5	-3.0
GLD	40	148	5920	158.69	6348	-0.07		ARR	118	8.3	982	9.87	1165	182.9	18.6
SPY	15	256.07	3841	278.2	4173	-0.09		IVR	1000	3.1	3052	4.42	4420	1367.6	44.8
								IVR	190	2.6	485	4.42	840	355.3	73.3
			36819		35408			NYMT	1500	1.6	2340	2.24	3360	1020	43.6
								MITT	370	2.6	977	3.56	1317	340.4	34.8
											35776		42499		6723
													Gains from Selling		$ 1,411.5
													Gains from Buying		$ 6,723.4
												Total from Active Management			$ 8,134.9

[Jack_Sparrow]

I didn't realize I could attach the spreadsheet. Here is the spreadsheet, its easier to comprehend.

[CordMcNally]

I didn't realize I could attach the spreadsheet. Here is the spreadsheet, its easier to comprehend.

Always interesting to look at but my comment wasn't directed at you.

Hopefully you can keep it up!

[Lordosis]

I am not sure at all if I am correct in this way of thinking but I imagine the stock market like this:
The red line is the actual value of all the companies. Mostly steady increase over time. Slight blip with Covid but probably not that dramatic. At least not yet.

The green line is market value that swings up and down and is mostly emotion and fluff.

This is why I think that the market is only sometimes correlated with real events.


This is a working hypothesis. Please help me understand and add.
Or tear down and restart if needed.

[StateOfMyHead]

I am not sure at all if I am correct in this way of thinking but I imagine the stock market like this:
The red line is the actual value of all the companies. Mostly steady increase over time. Slight blip with Covid but probably not that dramatic. At least not yet.

The green line is market value that swings up and down and is mostly emotion and fluff.

This is why I think that the market is only sometimes correlated with real events.


This is a working hypothesis. Please help me understand and add.
Or tear down and restart if needed.

I like it and plan to make my move when the red and green line converge or come more close to it. Hopefully that happens.

[Jack_Sparrow]

I am not sure at all if I am correct in this way of thinking but I imagine the stock market like this:
The red line is the actual value of all the companies. Mostly steady increase over time. Slight blip with Covid but probably not that dramatic. At least not yet.

The green line is market value that swings up and down and is mostly emotion and fluff.

This is why I think that the market is only sometimes correlated with real events.


This is a working hypothesis. Please help me understand and add.
Or tear down and restart if needed.

Just my opinion but, Id say the Stock Market is one giant Ponzi Scheme. Money goes in, stocks go up, money goes out stock goes down. The value of a company IMO is relative. Just like your home, it worth what someone is willing to pay for it (Id argue your red line does not exists). Sure there are some metrics that most people agree is a good process for listing the value of your (home)/Company(theoretical red line), but if you have a billionaire neighbor who wants to buy your house for double that "red line value" to control who moves in hes willing to pay more than what most people value it at, then the rules of what your house is valued at no longer apply since there are outside influences (political motivation, personal motivation-green thumb, estimated greater future value of home) that drive the price up. But if for example, something like that billionaire no longer wants to buy your house or wants to sell the house, then your home(company) drops like a rock because its now valued at what investor number 2 is willing to pay for it.

[Zaphod]

Zaphod,
I hope you are right. I hope the Fed is able to keep people from bankruptcy and closing of small businesses. I do not understand exactly all the things they have done and are doing but the stock market seems to like it. I did not think it would be possible. Perhaps the fact that this is a thing with an end (worse possible case is vaccine vs herd immunity in 12-18 months) best case = social distancing and something else lucky (therapy, testing for immunity = antibodies, innovation). I mean the whole freaking world is working on the problem and as you say, something the Fed is doing seems to have investors more confident. I just think this will be more of a marathon than a sprint. I don't think we will have football in the fall etc. BUT, I hope I am wrong! I think when people realize this is going to last a while the market will drop again.

I also do not understand it but know the market is liking it.