How low can we go?

[Peds]

I also hate seeing the market soar this week. I wanted it to wait another week when I reinvested all the money I TLH'd on 3/13.

why did you move to cash?

[Lithium]

why did you move to cash?

Because if I bought the same securities I'd violate the wash sale rule.
Also don't like the TLH partners and don't want to hold them for 40+ years.

[Zaphod]

Because if I bought the same securities I'd violate the wash sale rule.
Also don't like the TLH partners and don't want to hold them for 40+ years.

There are tons of things that simply follow whatever it is you were holding with an extremely high degree, you dont have to hold forever, just 30 days and swap back in.

[Lithium]

There are tons of things that simply follow whatever it is you were holding with an extremely high degree, you dont have to hold forever, just 30 days and swap back in.

I'd never seriously considered that, but it's not a bad idea. Obviously it could result in some short term capital gains, but I have plenty of capital losses to offset them. Sounds like something to try next time.

[Tangler]

Thoughts? I really thought it would keep dropping for months. Now I am only certain of being very uncertain. Anyone think we have seen the bottom and will not go back down past the prior lows? Where do you think we will be next April? Will we have college football? NFL? What will the summer look like? Will the small businesses and the economy rebound in the next year? Will it take a long time to fix this issue? Thoughts?

[Tim]

I think if you are trying to answer those questions, you are guessing. A good chance to be wrong two times. Sit tight and follow your plan.

[Tim]

If you pretend you know the answers, might have lost a little grip on reality. Not an assertion, just something to contemplate.

[Peds]

Thoughts?

no clue. all i know is im making money.

[Lordosis]

It certainly seems that this virus, the economy, and the stock market have nothing to do with each other.

[ScubaV]

For my last three biweekly pay periods the market has gone on a run leading up to my auto-contribution and then fallen the following week. It's really annoying.

[Zzyzx]

Thoughts? I really thought it would keep dropping for months. Now I am only certain of being very uncertain. Anyone think we have seen the bottom and will not go back down past the prior lows? Where do you think we will be next April? Will we have college football? NFL? What will the summer look like? Will the small businesses and the economy rebound in the next year? Will it take a long time to fix this issue? Thoughts?

what recession?
The S&P 500 bottomed 11 days ago. In that short span, it's retraced nearly 37% of its decline. Looking at all historical instances of the S&P clawing back more than 30% of its decline after 11 days, not a single one was was "just a bear market rally."

[Lordosis]

Recessions and bear markets are not the same. Recessions are bad. Bear markets are bad for this who panic or have poor timing. But can be good for those with a long investment horizon.

[Dont_know_mind]

I am sticking to my plan.
I have a barbell strategy/portfolio.
I am not increasing my risk allocation unless there is a 50% fall from peak.
We didn’t reach that so I do nothing. Whether it bounces or not doesn’t matter much to me.

It would be great if that was it. I tend to think we will visit sub 1700 on the SP500 though before the cycle completes, but I could be wrong.

I still wish I had more cash and there is no way I am buying anything here. I didn’t buy anything at -33% down and I don’t regret that at all, despite the bounce. I may miss out on some return, which I am completely ok with as having a margin of error and cash buffer for safety is more important to me than the probable returns I see on offer.

[Tangler]

I know no one knows. I followed my IPS, bought slowly to keep AA around 70:30 (actually 67:33 ish now) but I really did think (do think???? uncertain!) the economy has been curb stomped. Every number / indicator / economic variable just has to look like a dumpster fire. I know this thing has an end, I guess that knowledge might be enough for people. But, like others have said, very few plan on spending a lot of cash anytime soon and businesses are going to be hurting.
Anyway, sorry to ramble. I was just "expecting" a longer more extensive drop. I guess I am still expecting this, but every day that we get a bounce up I wonder.
More importantly, stay safe folks. Thanks for putting up with my ramblings!

[Tangler]

For my last three biweekly pay periods the market has gone on a run leading up to my auto-contribution and then fallen the following week. It's really annoying.

Yes, the old joke: "sometimes I buy some stocks, just to stimulate a fall and a buying opportunity" Mr. Market makes fun of my predictions! I say to my friend: "this is going to suck for quite a while", he agrees.......and then we watch it go up 10-20% and look like fools. We are fools = overconfident flawed emotional pattern seeking primates.