How low can we go?

[Nysoz]

it's fun to revive these threads from March. a few months ago the S&P and Nasdaq researched all new record highs, and now today the DOW finally did. the market always goes up

stonks*

[Tim]

I'm plowing forward full steam, I think Tech is going to be the huge winner. as does practically everybody else. Its also fairly immune to volatility to the 2020 election IMO.

I find it amazing that "policies" get clarified to the tune of trillions of dollars in one week. I just realized that sometimes politicians aren't 100% completely honest.
What could go wrong?

[Jack_Sparrow]

I find it amazing that "policies" get clarified to the tune of trillions of dollars in one week. I just realized that sometimes politicians aren't 100% completely honest.
What could go wrong?

Yep, Portfolio swung from being up 4% to down 1.6% on the day. Hard to say if it was the election or Vaccine news. but either way didn't expect this volatility.

[Larry Ragman]

Yep, Portfolio swung from being up 4% to down 1.6% on the day. Hard to say if it was the election or Vaccine news. but either way didn't expect this volatility.

DJ up 3%, S&P up 1.17% today. Both started with futures up 4-5%, so down relatively from there today. But none actually down 1.6% in absolute terms. Are trading individual stocks?

[xraygoggles]

Today was a sell-off of some WFH and tech stocks, and buying some of the value/travel/REIT sectors.

However, with winter looming, and no short-term end in sight for covid in the US, I have a feeling it will soon revert back to tech/WFH at some point.

I bought some puts on AMC today after it went up 60% on the vaccine news. Seems like a no brainer.

[Tim]

The week is light in data. We can construct narratives. How about bonds started selling off and the C-19 outlook caused downgrades of the bellwether Clorox? Face it, the market is forward looking and the 2021 forecasts are looking much better the the good old DJIA good old boys.

Let us remember that tens of millions of people voted for the status quo, even when it meant supporting lies, hate, chaos, and division.
Maybe it’s the benefits of unity?

Flip a coin, but it looks like a one day headfake until the bottom falls out. Fun, fun, fun.

Next try at “Reset” with Russia and China coming up. Lot’s of stories, some recycled.

[Dont_know_mind]

One of my favourites for explaining complex market movements, I often go back to it when I need to find out why things moved:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2016/02/a-public-service-to-mm-readers.html?m=1

[Jack_Sparrow]

DJ up 3%, S&P up 1.17% today. Both started with futures up 4-5%, so down relatively from there today. But none actually down 1.6% in absolute terms. Are trading individual stocks?

Yep. Huge holdings in AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, SQ, Z, NVDA. TDOC(which I sold). Would have been a blood bath for me but I also have about 20% REITS which popped big time.

[Larry Ragman]

Yep. Huge holdings in AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, SQ, Z, NVDA. TDOC(which I sold). Would have been a blood bath for me but I also have about 20% REITS which popped big time.

Maybe the virtualization of the economy will continue to support these tech giants, but the 1999-2000 movie would make me very nervous. Depending on your timeline you must have had a significant run up. Maybe time for some diversification? Are you considering that, as with your TDOC sale?

[Jack_Sparrow]

Maybe the virtualization of the economy will continue to support these tech giants, but the 1999-2000 movie would make me very nervous. Depending on your timeline you must have had a significant run up. Maybe time for some diversification? Are you considering that, as with your TDOC sale?

AMZN, GOOG, MSFT - still predicting growth over the next 5 years so I won't sell them in the short term. (I bought most of these stocks 7 years ago so taxes would be too much for me.)

I think SQ still has market share it can capture with alot of things going gig and online. Also the improved economy will only improve its outlook.

Zillow - I think eventually Zillow will transform the home buying experience and replace realtors for the most part. Alot of room to grow.

NVIDA is going to be a huge players in the self driving cars, but might sell just to shorten tech exposure.

TDOC- basically increased due to the pandemic. But as most people saw, alot of offices were able to adapt to some form of tele health without TDOC. So that has probably run its course IMO.

I'm 62% tech(include AMZN,SQ), 5% Boeing, 20% REITS, and 13% cash. I guess in hindsight that's not a good diversification, but I can't think of another industry I suspect will have a better outlook. Sold Cruise lines yesterday and might buy back after they come back down to normal.

[Zaphod]

Tech trade rout, which may simply be short term (arent they all) is just rate and reversal from WFH stuffs. Not only would a good vaccine kill wfh and associated stuffs but would allow back to normal everywhere else, aka inflation. Rates go up and wfh rekt, both are killer for growth stocks. Not to mention several stocks like Zoom have reached their generational TAM, and have no where to go for many years.

Again here, just interpreting the "market think" not necessarily my opinion.

The other truth is stocks are super highly valuated and were already pricing in a vaccine.

Real caveats are the impending tsunami of covid and that a near term vaccine increases the desirability of a lock down type thing occurring.

[Dont_know_mind]

Tech trade rout, which may simply be short term (arent they all) is just rate and reversal from WFH stuffs. Not only would a good vaccine kill wfh and associated stuffs but would allow back to normal everywhere else, aka inflation. Rates go up and wfh rekt, both are killer for growth stocks. Not to mention several stocks like Zoom have reached their generational TAM, and have no where to go for many years.

Again here, just interpreting the "market think" not necessarily my opinion.

The other truth is stocks are super highly valuated and were already pricing in a vaccine.

Real caveats are the impending tsunami of covid and that a near term vaccine increases the desirability of a lock down type thing occurring.

For the first time in a long time, resources and cyclicals outperformed tech this week.

USD was weakening for a few months now. US dollar headwinds are a tailwind for resources and reflation or the other way around, not sure what comes first, they may reinforce each other.

I’m 100% international indexes with a resource tilt from April this year, so I have a very directional view, which could be wrong. I doubled my index position size over the last 6 months. I have no: bonds/SP500/tech.

It will be interesting how things pan out!

[Larry Ragman]

For the first time in a long time, resources and cyclicals outperformed tech this week.

USD was weakening for a few months now. US dollar headwinds are a tailwind for resources and reflation or the other way around, not sure what comes first, they may reinforce each other.

I’m 100% international indexes with a resource tilt from April this year, so I have a very directional view, which could be wrong. I doubled my index position size over the last 6 months. I have no: bonds/SP500/tech.

It will be interesting how things pan out!

Serious question: how things pan out by what measure? Total return over 1 year, 5 years, 10? I admire your willingness to lay out your position and if I were a bit younger and trying to pick winners (I don’t since I am diversified indexer) your choices might make sense given current conditions. But how often do you try to reposition?

[Perry Ict]

For the first time in a long time, resources and cyclicals outperformed tech this week.

USD was weakening for a few months now. US dollar headwinds are a tailwind for resources and reflation or the other way around, not sure what comes first, they may reinforce each other.

I’m 100% international indexes with a resource tilt from April this year, so I have a very directional view, which could be wrong. I doubled my index position size over the last 6 months. I have no: bonds/SP500/tech.

It will be interesting how things pan out!

I am also heavily international along with a lot of less popular (up until now) domestic indices (large value, small value/blend). It will be interesting to see if the last few days were just a head fake or the start of a new trend and rotation into value/international and away from the popular growth equities.

[Tim]

Or the rotation could be into other US sectors.