How low can we go?

[Tim]

took 5 months for the S&P to be up YTD. still waiting for it to drop another 20%.....

5 months seems like an eternity. Hope your not disappointed if it’s only 5% for a couple days. May the force be with you.

[mgchan]

Shopify just reported more doubling of their gross merchandise volume year over year. Amazon will undoubtedly report a large jump in online sales as well. People are still spending money, they're just doing it online. Spending those stimulus checks. And they're going online for entrepreneurial efforts (+71% new Shopify stores).

Businesses will continue, even as many companies without an online presence fail, others will arise. Unfortunately, some careers that were ripe for being replaced by software will fall by the wayside and those people will need to learn to do new things if they want to continue working. As a society we'll need to adapt to the changing landscape, and it won't make sense to move entirely back to the way it was just because a vaccine is available. As Marc Andreessen said, software is eating the world and has done so for more than a decade. And it's eating all industries.

You can call it all "tech" if you want. But core business functions are increasingly performed by computers talking to computers, not people talking to people. The pandemic has drastically accelerated that change. So while there will be plenty of losers in this economy, there will also be some huge winners, and it's not all that difficult to identify which ones, at least not in aggregate. I will note that Fastly powers both Shopify and Amazon.com, and has a usage based pricing system.

[Homer Simpson]

https://www.thestockmd.com/blog/new-...gain-from-amd/

AMD beating up on intel too.

[Panscan]

https://www.thestockmd.com/blog/new-...gain-from-amd/

AMD beating up on intel too.

I don't understand how this guy is trading 71 million dollars of AMD?

[mgchan]

I don't understand how this guy is trading 71 million dollars of AMD?

It’s $71m in trades, not all at once. 71 trades (buys and sells) of $1m each, or many more trades of $5000 each. Seems like a stressful way to make $500k though.

[Nysoz]

It’s $71m in trades, not all at once. 71 trades (buys and sells) of $1m each, or many more trades of $5000 each. Seems like a stressful way to make $500k though.

more or less stressful than being a surgeon in their previous life? I'm slowly making my way to being like this person. I do enjoy elective cases, but having to do procedures on covid patients, disasters coming in while on call, constant silly phone calls to wake you up gets to you, even though I'm still relatively young in my career. so I don't know if I'll quit completely to day trade like this person, but slow down parts of work that add stress and try to make more money in the market.

[Brains428]

Shopify just reported more doubling of their gross merchandise volume year over year. Amazon will undoubtedly report a large jump in online sales as well. People are still spending money, they're just doing it online. Spending those stimulus checks. And they're going online for entrepreneurial efforts (+71% new Shopify stores).

Businesses will continue, even as many companies without an online presence fail, others will arise. Unfortunately, some careers that were ripe for being replaced by software will fall by the wayside and those people will need to learn to do new things if they want to continue working. As a society we'll need to adapt to the changing landscape, and it won't make sense to move entirely back to the way it was just because a vaccine is available. As Marc Andreessen said, software is eating the world and has done so for more than a decade. And it's eating all industries.

You can call it all "tech" if you want. But core business functions are increasingly performed by computers talking to computers, not people talking to people. The pandemic has drastically accelerated that change. So while there will be plenty of losers in this economy, there will also be some huge winners, and it's not all that difficult to identify which ones, at least not in aggregate. I will note that Fastly powers both Shopify and Amazon.com, and has a usage based pricing system.

Double like

[mgchan]

more or less stressful than being a surgeon in their previous life? I'm slowly making my way to being like this person. I do enjoy elective cases, but having to do procedures on covid patients, disasters coming in while on call, constant silly phone calls to wake you up gets to you, even though I'm still relatively young in my career. so I don't know if I'll quit completely to day trade like this person, but slow down parts of work that add stress and try to make more money in the market.

I don’t know what kind of surgeon he was, but given that he has a 7 figure portfolio I’d say it would be easier to make $500k by just buying and holding. It’s only 17% return on a $3m portfolio, not that impressive considering he apparently started somewhere in 2008 with not much so he has been investing in an 11 year bull market. I make less than 50 trades a year and spend 2-3 hours a week researching.

[thestockmd]

more or less stressful than being a surgeon in their previous life? I'm slowly making my way to being like this person. I do enjoy elective cases, but having to do procedures on covid patients, disasters coming in while on call, constant silly phone calls to wake you up gets to you, even though I'm still relatively young in my career. so I don't know if I'll quit completely to day trade like this person, but slow down parts of work that add stress and try to make more money in the market.

Hi, I believe are you talking about me.

For me, trading is definitely the lower stress activity. To be clear, it wasn't always that way. But once you understand proper risk management, the stress manages itself. I have a good idea of what my max gain and loss will be prior to making a trade.

The problem with surgery is that it tends to not favor a part time schedule. Most surgeons can't simply withdraw from the call schedule, or ask for an attenuated schedule. Most surgeons can't just open a purely elective practice and ignore the disasters coming from the ER. And the silly phone calls...

I wish you all the best and hope you can find the right balance.

[JBME]

I thank Lordosis for posting this on April 2. At the time I was considering whether to put more than my usual amount of money into the market (i kept doing what we already had been doing) and decided on April 1-2 "nope, I'm going to wait a week or two for it to go down). And here we are...just over four months later, and it never happened. We're near record highs again. And I see tons of posts (not here) about how people need to stop buying because it's all overpriced again. lol. I mean it'll probably go down 10% or so again sometime, right? who knows. Keep on truckin'

[Lordosis]

I thank Lordosis for posting this on April 2. At the time I was considering whether to put more than my usual amount of money into the market (i kept doing what we already had been doing) and decided on April 1-2 "nope, I'm going to wait a week or two for it to go down). And here we are...just over four months later, and it never happened. We're near record highs again. And I see tons of posts (not here) about how people need to stop buying because it's all overpriced again. lol. I mean it'll probably go down 10% or so again sometime, right? who knows. Keep on truckin'

I hope I didn't cause you to not buy low.

[JBME]

We did our Roth IRA contributions and 529 contributions for the year on March 15. Big win by happenstance. I considered converting some pre tax money to roth so I could convert at a “discount” but didn’t do it. I lost out on that. I don’t many think it’ll dip 40% again this year. Maybe 10% or 20% but not 40%

[Nysoz]

Hi, I believe are you talking about me.

For me, trading is definitely the lower stress activity. To be clear, it wasn't always that way. But once you understand proper risk management, the stress manages itself. I have a good idea of what my max gain and loss will be prior to making a trade.

The problem with surgery is that it tends to not favor a part time schedule. Most surgeons can't simply withdraw from the call schedule, or ask for an attenuated schedule. Most surgeons can't just open a purely elective practice and ignore the disasters coming from the ER. And the silly phone calls...

I wish you all the best and hope you can find the right balance.

Yeah, it's difficult to find but possible. I did a rotation, as a student, with a couple of surgeons my dad knew. They were part of a large multi specialty group that mainly got referrals from their group. They never took ER call and did basically all their cases at a surgery center. They definitely didn't make that much in comparison but the lifestyle and hours were hard to beat.

The other idea I've toyed around with is once I hit my fire number, just do locums here and there until I hit my fatfire number. Congrats with your story and I wish you continued success.

[Tim]

Just an observation: with orthopedic it seems to be “cultural”. A mid career productive surgeon should be cranking production for the money machine. Partnership, group, hospital or academic.
A preconceived notion. Scaling back at 60 plus on your way out is understandable and possible for a limited period of time.

[JBME]

it's fun to revive these threads from March. a few months ago the S&P and Nasdaq researched all new record highs, and now today the DOW finally did. the market always goes up