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  • How low can we go?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...of2&yptr=yahoo

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    • ^^^ 50% is always the number

      same article can easily be found dated one, two, three, five years ago

      no one can consistently time the market

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      • Originally posted by EntrepreneurMD View Post
        Gary really nailed it in 2009 when he predicted the S&P 500 to close between 500-600 and it closed at twice that. Point is, as much as Gary (and others) like to think they know...they don't.

        He also made that prediction on 4/7/2020 when the S&P 500 was at ~2650 and is now ~3170. So, does that mean it's going to fall 40% from 2650 or from some undetermined price in the future and claim he was correct like some people do?

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        • Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post
          ^^^ 50% is always the number

          same article can easily be found dated one, two, three, five years ago

          no one can consistently time the market

          And from the same article: “This pandemic is likely to be the most disruptive financial and social event since World War II with equally long-lasting consequences,” Shilling wrote, citing the stark unemployment numbers at the time. “Many will no doubt restrain spending in future years to rebuild savings, especially since the crisis caught them at a time of high debts and short financial reserves.”

          These types of articles said the same thing about changing people’s spending behavior in 2008/2008, and look how long that lasted. Savers are gonna save and spenders are gonna spend. Luckily for us savers, we are far outnumbered by the spenders.
          Last edited by Anne; 07-07-2020, 11:11 AM.

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          • Originally posted by Anne View Post


            And from the same article: “This pandemic is likely to be the most disruptive financial and social event since World War II with equally long-lasting consequences,” Shilling wrote, citing the stark unemployment numbers at the time. “Many will no doubt restrain spending in future years to rebuild savings, especially since the crisis caught them at a time of high debts and short financial reserves.”

            These types of articles said the same thing about changing people’s spending behavior in 2008/2008, and look how long that lasted. Savers are gonna save and spenders are gonna spend. Luckily for us savers, we are far outnumbered by the spenders.
            Perhaps the average american will save slightly more. But "rebuild" fails to appreciate that they never saved much of anything to begin with

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            • Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

              Way to ruin it for me too!

              I worked as a lifeguard during that song's peak. I literally heard it 50 times a day.
              Dear god. That is almost on par with fraternity hazing where people had to listen to Chumbawumba Tubthumpin' on repeat for a whole week - while sleeping too.

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              • Originally posted by ENT Doc View Post

                Dear god. That is almost on par with fraternity hazing where people had to listen to Chumbawumba Tubthumpin' on repeat for a whole week - while sleeping too.
                I'm still mad at you bro

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                • Originally posted by childay View Post
                  I'm still mad at you bro
                  Lol. We didn't do that crap. I think I would have thrown the speakers out the window.

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                  • Originally posted by childay View Post

                    Perhaps the average american will save slightly more. But "rebuild" fails to appreciate that they never saved much of anything to begin with
                    Maybe we’ll get to the point that nearly everyone can handle a $400 unexpected expense without resorting to a credit card (that they are not going to pay off immediately). But probably not.

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                    • Originally posted by Anne View Post

                      Maybe we’ll get to the point that nearly everyone can handle a $400 unexpected expense without resorting to a credit card (that they are not going to pay off immediately). But probably not.
                      You do know money clips(the denominations and quantity ) and a gold pocket watch were considered fashion accessories. “ High rollers” was a description of one that carried a roll of bills with rubber bands. Take it out and peel em off! $400 would be chicken feed. $20’s and $100’s. Preferably the latter.

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                      • So, we are nearing the peak of the bubble now, right?

                        Tesla 1400, Nasdaq 10k, S&P back to Jan levels. Biotech & cloud companies off the charts.

                        Even the stock market cannot overrule the laws of physics: what goes up must.....

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                        • Trump is alerting us to nasdaq record highs on twitter I think that has to mean something

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                          • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
                            So, we are nearing the peak of the bubble now, right?

                            Tesla 1400, Nasdaq 10k, S&P back to Jan levels. Biotech & cloud companies off the charts.

                            Even the stock market cannot overrule the laws of physics: what goes up must.....
                            What goes up must be on an upward trajectory and may either continue to go up, stay the same, or come back down.

                            The stock market is not really doing all that well. It’s a handful of the best companies. The top 100 companies by market cap are up, the bottom of the barrel are down big. But the modern companies are built to handle the pandemic and will continue to thrive whether we go on lockdown again or not. Those might be “tech” or just old companies that embraced tech. One would be pretty happy having invested in the companies mentioned in my prior post.

                            https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/fo...onomy?p=195396

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                            • The disparity between the top market cap stocks and the rest of the stock market might resolve the other way too.; in other words, the breadth of the stock market could improve with the other stocks catching up. I'd imagine that not every lagging company (in terms of stock price) is a bad one. But my guess is that the real economy would have to improve to see that on a large scale.

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                              • Originally posted by mgchan View Post

                                The stock market is not really doing all that well. It’s a handful of the best companies. The top 100 companies by market cap are up, the bottom of the barrel are down big.

                                https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/fo...onomy?p=195396
                                Did you just make an argument against indexing, or at least the wrong indexing SP vs. Nasdaq 100?

                                You gonna join me in blasphemy you know. No, not blasphemy. Most put their faith in John C., I put my faith in JC for guidance.

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