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  • Originally posted by Zzyzx View Post

    it's a bubble - CA shuts down non-essential business for 3 weeks in major counties, other major states are heading that way now, next 3-4 weeks are going to get ugly with the virus - and then the Nasdaq hits record high
    wait til aug when UI ends
    existential hurricane!
    I don't know, the Fed has an awful lot of ammo still in the clip. They have already proven they will pull out all stops to make sure market is propped up.

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    • No one knows. What good is my opinion? For the record, it’s a bubble.
      My Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFF...MwBiAAKd5N8qPg

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      • covid was a new virus that we dealt with in a new way, disrupting a lot of things. the 'tech' industry is the one that's finding/optimizing solutions for us to live our lives until a safe vaccine is created. zoom, teledoc, amazon, shopify, basically anything that's allowed us to still live our lives has done well.

        there's a lot of money out there in the world. which industry or where will everyone allocate it? a lot of industries are still ravaged by shutdowns and will take a while to come back. cash? you're losing money. govt/other bonds? such low yields is basically getting nothing.

        multiply this by every other country in the world. their rates are even worse than ours, so they invest in us companies/bonds/treasuries. with the tech industry least affected and no where else really to put money, I expect it to continue to outperform until a widespread safe vaccine/herd immunity is created... or the entire bubble pops. the fed has a lot of bubble soap and big lungs to keep blowing up the bubble though

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        • Biotech and tech, safe as houses ?
          It’s like déjà-vu all over again.

          I used to be sceptical about the idea that the Fed are serial bubble blowers, but after seeing the last 3 cycles....Who would have guessed that injecting massive amounts of liquidity would have this effect on valuations?

          My guess is the next time the market frats, there will be some more easing. It is like the fed reaction function is basically a 10% fall in the SP500.

          I like a recent comment I read on Twitter from Michael Petis:
          “...Unfortunately angry nationalism often seems to be, historically, the only force capable of reversing policies favored by the financial elite – even if it is a dangerous force, a little like riding a tiger to fight a bear – which is why I really don’t think the ugly nationalism and anti-immigrant feelings that afflict the world are likely to abate any time soon.”

          Until then, party on !

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          • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

            I don't know, the Fed has an awful lot of ammo still in the clip. They have already proven they will pull out all stops to make sure market is propped up.
            My take is the Fed will prop up the economy.
            Employment and inflation. Fiscal policy in Congress is the unknown and I question the value added by “Tech”. Most seems to be concentrated on “news”, “editorial opinion” distribution, advertising rather than science and productivity.

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            • How does one define "tech"? Is it based on how the company makes its money, or how it does business, or how it delivers its services? For companies that sell products, is it based on whether the company makes products that use electricity or has a microprocessor?

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              • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
                covid was a new virus that we dealt with in a new way, disrupting a lot of things. the 'tech' industry is the one that's finding/optimizing solutions for us to live our lives until a safe vaccine is created. zoom, teledoc, amazon, shopify, basically anything that's allowed us to still live our lives has done well.

                there's a lot of money out there in the world. which industry or where will everyone allocate it? a lot of industries are still ravaged by shutdowns and will take a while to come back. cash? you're losing money. govt/other bonds? such low yields is basically getting nothing.

                multiply this by every other country in the world. their rates are even worse than ours, so they invest in us companies/bonds/treasuries. with the tech industry least affected and no where else really to put money, I expect it to continue to outperform until a widespread safe vaccine/herd immunity is created... or the entire bubble pops. the fed has a lot of bubble soap and big lungs to keep blowing up the bubble though
                Would it not be a smarter investment to be buying the undervalued industries ravaged by the the shutdowns?

                Theoretical question, I am an indexer,

                ...asking for a friend? ; )

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                • Originally posted by BladeRunner View Post

                  Would it not be a smarter investment to be buying the undervalued industries ravaged by the the shutdowns?

                  Theoretical question, I am an indexer,

                  ...asking for a friend? ; )
                  You do buy them...as an indexer.

                  Ravaged does not mean undervalued. Those companies can be ravaged and undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued. The ones headed for collapse/bankruptcy are clearly still overvalued.

                  And the answer is no if you're truly investing for the long term.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by BladeRunner View Post

                    Would it not be a smarter investment to be buying the undervalued industries ravaged by the the shutdowns?

                    Theoretical question, I am an indexer,

                    ...asking for a friend? ; )
                    Sure, if you have some certainty that those industries will rebound and not go bankrupt waiting for everything to re-open, and that they will survive any subsequent shutdowns, and that their customers will return at a level at least similar to pre-pandemic levels, and that earnings or revenue will continue to grow or their dividend will be intact.

                    Personally, I prefer the companies that were doing well before the shutdown and are doing even better during the shutdown.

                    Comment


                    • Is there a FAANGtslachipotle etf?

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                      • Originally posted by EntrepreneurMD View Post

                        You do buy them...as an indexer.

                        Ravaged does not mean undervalued. Those companies can be ravaged and undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued. The ones headed for collapse/bankruptcy are clearly still overvalued.

                        And the answer is no if you're truly investing for the long term.
                        Hence, why I used the term "undervalued".

                        I was not trying to troll, but rather trying to point out that there may be some overlooked opprtunity in sectors adversely affected by the pandemic.

                        Carry on., thumbs up.




                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by EntrepreneurMD View Post
                          Also doing healthcare and consumer discretionary for diversification into other quality sectors.

                          No interest in transports, cruise lines, energy, brick and mortar, banking right now.
                          Could you give more insight into consumer discretionary (not incl. cruise lines) you have considered?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by parachute View Post

                            Could you give more insight into consumer discretionary (not incl. cruise lines) you have considered?
                            I stuck with a mutual fund to hold it and forget it - FSRPX. It's done pretty well from it's lows in 2009 of about $2.5/share to $19 now, or just under an 8 fold return in 11 years. Good for 20.25% 10-year annualized returns. Most US indexes averaging 12-13% annualized over the long term. I like a min 20% since that means it more than doubles every 5 years (less fund expenses). With 20 years until retirement (for me) a $100K investment (reasonable for most physicians) at 20% annualized returns would be worth around $3.8M less expenses when plugged into an investment calculator. At the index average 13% it's still a respectable $1.15M. My best performer (not consumer cyclical) has a 34% 10-year annualized, put $100K investment at that rate for 20 years into an investment calculator and the number is absolutely mind boggling, let alone letting it compound until death for children's inheritance. The power of compounding, quantified.

                            https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fsrpx

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by mgchan View Post
                              How does one define "tech"? Is it based on how the company makes its money, or how it does business, or how it delivers its services? For companies that sell products, is it based on whether the company makes products that use electricity or has a microprocessor?
                              Tech to me is anything listed on the Nasdaq

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by BladeRunner View Post

                                Hence, why I used the term "undervalued".

                                I was not trying to troll, but rather trying to point out that there may be some overlooked opprtunity in sectors adversely affected by the pandemic.

                                Carry on., thumbs up.



                                I’m not sure if buying sectors affected by the virus is contrarian at this point in time.

                                I guess to be contrarian, something would need to be quite unpopular. For this to be the case, it usually will have underperformed for a number of years.

                                I think sectors that are out of favour currently include: European equities, emerging market equities, UK equities, resources, oil, uranium.

                                There are potential gains to being a contrarian but you have to be prepared that most of the time you will be wrong. So if you do this, you have to make sure you are ok if you are wrong. Most of the time the market/crowd is right.

                                Howard Marks book “The most important thing” goes through this well.

                                It helps if you have followed it extensively and being contrarian on this sector is in your circle of competence. Some people see a sector plunge and develop a high conviction contrarian idea and get burnt. Sometimes it recovers, sometimes it doesn’t. I wouldn’t dabble in it unless I knew the sector well.

                                I Tend to think travel, airlines, tourism haven’t been down long enough to have reached a pessimistic enough stage for me to want to invest. This often takes years or decades, maybe even 2 decades.

                                I would tend to think uranium and European equities probably meet that criteria but I don’t know those sectors well enough to be able to discern whether they are a good investment. Certainly uranium is very unpopular and I don’t know anyone who is bullish into that.

                                Would you be interested in buying a Uranium etf ?



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