How low can we go?

[Kennyt7]

June 27, 2020 - The Ric Edelman Show - Omny.fmomny.fm › shows › investing-sense › june-27-2020.
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[Dont_know_mind]

Even though I would hate to bet against the Fed, I think at least a 10-15% drop or so is inevitable in the next few weeks. There's just too much poop hitting the fan right now for it not to.

yes, that's true, it's a very uncertain period, many things could happen, including it could fall a bit or a lot. I was just thinking of some counterpoints to the idea that it has to go down due to the economy, covid etc. But, hey, it's very possible it does.

[Nysoz]

Even though I would hate to bet against the Fed, I think at least a 10-15% drop or so is inevitable in the next few weeks. There's just too much poop hitting the fan right now for it not to.

there may be a lot of poop hitting the fan but jpow's money printer goes brrrrr and you can't see the poop through all the helicopter money.

but yeah I think there's going to be return to volatile times again, especially if a second wave of covid somehow makes people close down again

[Hank]

There may be a lot of poop hitting the fan but jpow's money printer goes brrrrr and you can't see the poop through all the helicopter money.

I feel like I’ve seen this before, maybe on some subreddit somewhere...

[StarTrekDoc]

You all realize there was no business for stock market recovery when we know the medical stuff behind it.

These swings are going to continue for some time. There is no way erase a three trillion dollar and counting rescue. Our kids are going to be paying for this for a long time.

[FIREshrink]

You all realize there was no business for stock market recovery when we know the medical stuff behind it.

These swings are going to continue for some time. There is no way erase a three trillion dollar and counting rescue. Our kids are going to be paying for this for a long time.

But increased money supply = inflation, which is actually an argument for why the stock market won't go down at least in nominal terms. Dollars are worth less than a year ago, so stock market must be worth more in dollars, even if those dollars have less purchasing power now or twenty years from now . Stocks were one of the few winning investments during the Weimar Republic.

[Nysoz]

You all realize there was no business for stock market recovery when we know the medical stuff behind it.

These swings are going to continue for some time. There is no way erase a three trillion dollar and counting rescue. Our kids are going to be paying for this for a long time.

if trump remains president, can he just declare bankruptcy to erase the debt like one of his other companies? sorry, just had to make that joke lol.

I've given up on national debt a while ago. there's just no way to pay for it and it'll just balloon forever. the question is, at what point will it really matter and we just need to avoid getting to that point.

[Dont_know_mind]

These swings are going to continue for some time. There is no way erase a three trillion dollar and counting rescue. Our kids are going to be paying for this for a long time.

Another way of looking at it is that it is equalising somewhat the benefits the future generations will have from progress. I’m reckon the kids of 50 years from now will be ok and probably have a better quality of life than us.

[Dont_know_mind]

if trump remains president, can he just declare bankruptcy to erase the debt like one of his other companies? sorry, just had to make that joke lol.

I've given up on national debt a while ago. there's just no way to pay for it and it'll just balloon forever. the question is, at what point will it really matter and we just need to avoid getting to that point.

The can can get kicked down the road a few hundred times and it can be ok, no one needs to solve intractable problems. Just look at the Euro or Japanese government debt. Maybe the same with the pension problem, us government debt.

My guess is they will extend fiscal stimulus beyond the current period. Kick the can down the road until after the election and keep kicking it further down the road whenever it comes up...

[Dont_know_mind]

At the Collosseum, the crowd bellows “Moar, Moar !”.
Emperor Trump gives the thumbs up, “Moar!”

Ah, sweet stimulus,
Forget the dregs of modern day coffee,
Stimulus largesse is the true nectar of today.

[Jack_Sparrow]

I've always thought the easy way out of all this mess is inflation. If anyone had a shot at trimming the budget (given the economic boom) it was the current regime. So I don't ever see the budget being balanced. I think politicians/fed will continue to print money and try to control inflation the best they can.

I do predict a few swings in the market over next 2 quarters no doubt. However I think the stock market can return back to the same level no problem by end of the year. Stock market is a bunch of corporations. These corporations will continue to grow due to buying up market share from all the bankrupt small businesses. Great for wall street bad for main street.

[xraygoggles]

This really seems bubbly, doesn't it?

Tech stocks are on a tear, but some of it may be warranted with the "new normal." I'm not complaining since I'm very tech heavy. But I wonder when/if the party ends...

[burritos]

Uncertain if it would pertain to today's times. But Andrew Jackson paid of the national debt. What followed was a 6 year depression.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/04/15/135423586/when-the-u-s-paid-off-the-entire-national-debt-and-why-it-didnt-last

Causation? Correlation? Whatever, it didn't help anything.

[Zzyzx]

This really seems bubbly, doesn't it?

Tech stocks are on a tear, but some of it may be warranted with the "new normal." I'm not complaining since I'm very tech heavy. But I wonder when/if the party ends...

it's a bubble - CA shuts down non-essential business for 3 weeks in major counties, other major states are heading that way now, next 3-4 weeks are going to get ugly with the virus - and then the Nasdaq hits record high
wait til aug when UI ends
existential hurricane!

[EntrepreneurMD]

Tech story has been, and continues to be the outperformance story, since 09. I don't see the party ending any time soon. Internet subcategory is my favorite right now. It's a bubble yes, but the Feds want it expanding further in a US recession. Punch bowl still being filled...for now. Markets have been up 19 of the past 23 election years, going back to 1928. No guarantee but bodes well for 2020.

Also doing healthcare and consumer discretionary for diversification into other quality sectors. Gold is looking like a safe bet too given the near term uncertainty. Beyond that overdiversification seems to hurt returns too much when you're in a financial position to take on some more risk for more reward.

No interest in transports, cruise lines, energy, brick and mortar, banking right now.