How low can we go?

[FIREshrink]

Wonder if anyone sold on the way down or at the bottom?

Trillions of dollars of equities were sold. That's what makes a 35% decline. Of course, few will admit to it. Just like no one admits to losing money in Vegas, and yet, Bellagio.

[burritos]

Trillions of dollars of equities were sold. That's what makes a 35% decline. Of course, few will admit to it. Just like no one admits to losing money in Vegas, and yet, Bellagio.

They could just be robo sells.

[FIREshrink]

A sell is a sell. It's true that retail investors did not sell as much as institutional, but have any hedge funds, endowments family offices, or the like admitted to selling out on the way down? Someone did, whether it was programmed or not.

[jacoavlu]

“A sell is a sell”

there are always two sides to the transaction

[burritos]

Indexes are rebounding, but the economy isn't. Are people buying outside the indices that are getting hammered? Energy, finance, travel, airlines? That seems like right play. I'm not smart enough to make such moves.

[mgchan]

Indexes are rebounding, but the economy isn't. Are people buying outside the indices that are getting hammered? Energy, finance, travel, airlines? That seems like right play. I'm not smart enough to make such moves.

There are enough businesses either unaffected or helped by the pandemic, and ones that were hugely successful before it, that you don't need to try to play rebounds. Yes, a lot of money can be made buying at the bottom and selling at the top, but I have no idea how to determine the bottom or when something will turn around rather than just keep falling. I prefer to bet on the winning horses to keep winning rather than thinking the one bringing up the rear is due to make a comeback. Hitch my ride to the rocketship rather than the falling knife or dead cat. Just my humble opinion.

[StarTrekDoc]

We sold with 15% loss from peak. was way out of balance too so really didn't hurt as rode it up so high. A lot more in line with what we should be now, but wanting to be more aggressive in the market just because....but need to listen to my goals and stay the course the IPS calls for..... Paid off the low car rates and cash on the model y.

I disagree that earnings are marginal on service and entertainment. Lots of dollars go to the masses in those sectors that turn around and spend at fast foods and home depot and Amazon and buy pricy iPhones every year in installment plans and carry high apr balances in credit cards to feed financials. That's all gone and going to hurt. Same with the business travel and leisure travel. All greatly deminished. Disney will probably be fine as many nice casinos

Fremont Street? The moms and pops around international drive and motels? Probably not. AMC goes out? Will epic films be made for small screens?

[Peds]

got so low had to re-balance back into fixed income.....rules are rules i guess.

[Tim]

got so low had to re-balance back into fixed income.....rules are rules i guess.

Market drops CAN be self correcting of behavioral finance errors in AA. Start at 60/40 ride it up to 80/20 and not rebalancing is the mistake on the upside. That mistake requires a second mistake. Eat the market drop and you are back where You started, 60/40.
Doing nothing is often the best course. If you bought/sold based on the market volatility, one mistake gets compounded. Two wrongs can offset each other.
I rebalance “annually” with a provision to reduce equity if its grown. Slow process. The market took care of it. I only sell equity to avoid the “fear factor “ in AA tweeting. Not conventional, but I will ride every crash to the bottom or buy more equity. Never sell equity in a down market.

[StateOfMyHead]

Trillions of dollars of equities were sold. That's what makes a 35% decline. Of course, few will admit to it. Just like no one admits to losing money in Vegas, and yet, Bellagio.

I had planned to restructure and ended up selling at a loss from peak but at a spike after initial drop. I am sitting back for now. Time will tell if it was stupid although if I wasn't prepared to sell then I wouldn't be prepared to sell now and if the bottom drops in the near future as I suspect it will the gains from holding during this would all be on paper anyway. Hindsight will be 20/20 and either way lessons learned. Perhaps I'm trying to make sense of something that is illogical but the loss in revenue for so many industries has to have an impact eventually. Also the stimulus money and extra $600 a week unemployment that the masses seem to be burning through on fancy new TVs will not last forever. It will be interesting.

[burritos]

What's the percent likelihood that this is a bear market rally?

[Tim]

What's the percent likelihood that this is a bear market rally?

3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375 105820974944592307816406286%
Approximately? Just a WAG.

[bullsdoc]

I had planned to restructure and ended up selling at a loss from peak but at a spike after initial drop. I am sitting back for now. Time will tell if it was stupid although if I wasn't prepared to sell then I wouldn't be prepared to sell now and if the bottom drops in the near future as I suspect it will the gains from holding during this would all be on paper anyway. Hindsight will be 20/20 and either way lessons learned. Perhaps I'm trying to make sense of something that is illogical but the loss in revenue for so many industries has to have an impact eventually. Also the stimulus money and extra $600 a week unemployment that the masses seem to be burning through on fancy new TVs will not last forever. It will be interesting.

There is no where else good for people to put money. Not bonds, there is no high interest savings account in existence. The market is it.

Selling definitely isn't going to work now. I agree and feel the same way, things are comically overpriced. But if you sell and you miss the day that a vaccine becomes a reality, you're going to miss a bounce more important than anything else. Better to not market time right now (Or ever).

[Tim]

There is no where else good for people to put money. Not bonds, there is no high interest savings account in existence. The market is it.
Selling definitely isn't going to work now. I agree and feel the same way, things are comically overpriced. But if you sell and you miss the day that a vaccine becomes a reality, you're going to miss a bounce more important than anything else. Better to not market time right now (Or ever).

Private investment is the alternative. But that has higher risk/reward. Difficult to accomplish and difficult to perform due diligence.

[Lordosis]

Well Nevada opened back up. Doesn't look like there will be much trouble restarting the gambling economy.