How low can we go?

[Dont_know_mind]

I have been thinking about this really hard the last 2 weeks and bought some EM then got cold feet, sold and then changed my mind.

I think I have made a final decision. I think EM is good value here. It could go lower, but maybe not. I find it compelling value and think it will be a good investment over a 10 year timeframe (but I could be wrong).

I decided to allocate 70% of my cash to EM ETF’s today. Which could well mark an interim top.

[Dont_know_mind]

Someone retweeted this recently. A classic.
2016 seems like yesterday.

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2016/02/a-public-service-to-mm-readers.html?m=1

”Nothing makes sense right now, but there's a long history of that.” Morgan Housel.

[bullsdoc]

I have been thinking about this really hard the last 2 weeks and bought some EM then got cold feet, sold and then changed my mind.

I think I have made a final decision. I think EM is good value here. It could go lower, but maybe not. I find it compelling value and think it will be a good investment over a 10 year timeframe (but I could be wrong).

I decided to allocate 70% of my cash to EM ETF’s today. Which could well mark an interim top.

EM is interesting. But that it couldn't get worse? Things are pretty bad in Brazil right now. Certainly this is a speculative bet and not one for an investment plan, etc. aside from a very portion that might have already been in your written plan. But I agree interesting.

[jacoavlu]

I have been thinking about this really hard the last 2 weeks and bought some EM then got cold feet, sold and then changed my mind.

I think I have made a final decision. I think EM is good value here. It could go lower, but maybe not. I find it compelling value and think it will be a good investment over a 10 year timeframe (but I could be wrong).

I decided to allocate 70% of my cash to EM ETF’s today. Which could well mark an interim top.

did you enter back into the same EM ETFs? If so were the recent sales when you changed your mind at a gain or loss?

If at a loss, at the same brokerage? You could have some small wash sale adjustments.

[Dont_know_mind]

did you enter back into the same EM ETFs? If so were the recent sales when you changed your mind at a gain or loss?

If at a loss, at the same brokerage? You could have some small wash sale adjustments.

Same ETF, but I ended up buying around 1% higher than I sold it. Which is irritating, but I had to try on the idea, take it off and realise I wanted to keep it.

[jacoavlu]

Same ETF, but I ended up buying around 1% higher than I sold it. Which is irritating, but I had to try on the idea, take it off and realise I wanted to keep it.

No. When you recently sold. Was that a realized gain or realized loss?

if it was a loss then you have wash sale. Not that big of a deal just something to be aware of. If at a different brokerage then you have to calculate loss and make basis adjustment yourself.

[Dont_know_mind]

EM is interesting. But that it couldn't get worse? Things are pretty bad in Brazil right now. Certainly this is a speculative bet and not one for an investment plan, etc. aside from a very portion that might have already been in your written plan. But I agree interesting.

Sure it could get worse.
I am not very balanced. My retirement account is now: 30%- property, 55% EM, 15% cash.
I wouldn’t suggest anyone else do this.
I also have a very atypical taxable account.
I am pretty comfortable with my overall portfolio though.

[skuggs13]

Looks like things are picking back up now that we are slowly on the rise in terms of opening cities. At least, that is the case in the south.

[Perry Ict]

EM is interesting. But that it couldn't get worse? Things are pretty bad in Brazil right now. Certainly this is a speculative bet and not one for an investment plan, etc. aside from a very portion that might have already been in your written plan. But I agree interesting.

What the investment world calls "EM" composes a huge part of the world and not all countries are the same. There's some variability in the funds with how much of each country are included. For example, China, India, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil are all have different levels of risk. So from that standpoint, I don't think you can characterize every fund as "speculative" in an extreme sense, it really just depends on the composition. To me, some of those countries seem like they might be a safer investment than the US right now, but who knows, you are correct that things could get worse (just as in the US stock market). Either way, I tend to agree with Don't_Know_Mind that this seems like a decent spot for EM depending on the fund.

[Lordosis]

My guess is that when things start looking better the market will do worse. It just seems like me market likes to play opposite day.

[StateOfMyHead]

My guess is that when things start looking better the market will do worse. It just seems like me market likes to play opposite day.

Or when the reality of the financial mess our country is facing sets in.

[Lordosis]

Or when the reality of the financial mess our country is facing sets in.

Who knows. The drop happened at an odd time. By that point it had been obvious for a while that covid was going to be a big deal. But it was a while before it really caused any trouble. I am sure a million people can write their own version of the timeline but it doesn't make sense to me.

[Tim]

Kind of like traveling in a fog. A few feet in front of you, it’s no big deal. Hazy a little bit more and then it’s impossible to see what’s there. That’s simply vision, now consider time. One little virus:
Healthcare, economic, market risks are measurable. Spring and summer are the seasons of social unrest. Not sure where we are, where we are headed nor how fast we are traveling. What’s ahead? Major disasters or conflicts? Lot of potential surprises. Time will tell.

[Lordosis]

Jeez I am awful at this timing thing. I Bet on the beginning of April being a bump and a drop. That hurt.
Then held until last week until I gave up. Looking like this is going to hurt also.

I think I called the bottom and top pretty darn close but the wrong way.

[Peds]

Jeez I am awful at this timing thing. I Bet on the beginning of April being a bump and a drop. That hurt.
Then held until last week until I gave up. Looking like this is going to hurt also.

I think I called the bottom and top pretty darn close but the wrong way.

quick write a book!