How low can we go?

[Zzyzx]

Definitely some disconnects. Which is the leading indicator?

Gilead!!?? no statistically significant decrease in mortality but time to recovery 11 vs 15 days. ok then... markets bounce on this??

[Peds]

Gilead!!?? no statistically significant decrease in mortality but time to recovery 11 vs 15 days. ok then... markets bounce on this??

ppl just want to hear something works.....

[Lordosis]

ppl just want to hear something works.....

Maybe there was a point to suggesting sunshine and lysol?

Or maybe not...

[oysterblues]

Definitely some disconnects. Which is the leading indicator?

I'm no expert but I think the 10 year outlook is not significantly different than it was last year. Main street != Wall street.

We dipped and hit bottom March 23 and now are experiencing a rapid recovery. I felt differently a few weeks ago but it seems like the stock market has priced this pandemic in. The true economic hardship will be miserable for a chunk (10 - 20 % ??) of the country.

[ENT Doc]

7.6% plunge in consumer spending with a decline of 10.2% in services consumption, first quarter GDP contracted by 4.8%, 30 million workers have filed for unemployment claims, pending home sales tank nearly 21% in March...

Markets +2.5%

Maybe the markets had priced in a 10% decline. Who the heck knows what's going on.

[Lordosis]

I'm no expert but I think the 10 year outlook is not significantly different than it was last year. Main street != Wall street.

We dipped and hit bottom March 23 and now are experiencing a rapid recovery. I felt differently a few weeks ago but it seems like the stock market has priced this pandemic in. The true economic hardship will be miserable for a chunk (10 - 20 % ??) of the country.

If that truly is the case then those who sold on the way down and did not buy back in are going to be highly disappointed.

[Lordosis]

Can someone explain how the low price of oil effects the market. I have seen it argued both ways and neither makes much sense.

[JBME]

it seems like the stock market has priced this pandemic in.

except not a single person out there knows with 100% certainty (probably even 20% certainty is too high) how long the pandemic lasts...you would think the length of it would also affect the economic outlook

[EntrepreneurMD]

Can someone explain how the low price of oil effects the market. I have seen it argued both ways and neither makes much sense.

special effects

[Jack_Sparrow]

Can someone explain how the low price of oil effects the market. I have seen it argued both ways and neither makes much sense.

Oil industry is responsible for 10 million jobs (or was),(~6-7% of our nations workforce), and ~8% of GDP. Not to mention the great economic circle, whereas oil and gas industry worker gets paid, then pay taxes, go to restaurants, see doctors, buy houses etc. You destroy that workforce overnight your going to see it rattled in every state in America. Because, everyone is going to an instant decrease in consumption. I don't feel like this is offset either by people spending $5 less in gas each week.

Not to mention, I've always thought people use OIL as a predictor of alot of things as well. Oil predicts economic activity, etc (Kind of like how people look at Walmart to predict all retail sales). So if it drops so does everything else theoretically or atleast thats what people think and believe and then they act on those thoughts and feeling with their money and so its self full-filling.

[Tim]

except not a single person out there knows with 100% certainty (probably even 20% certainty is too high) how long the pandemic lasts...you would think the length of it would also affect the economic outlook

Long term: The health issues may have short term negative and long term positive impacts on the economy. Business , healthcare and education have resisted online work . Whether it’s power, culture or just the way things are done,many functions are more efficient remotely.
US has typically “outsourced” rather than managing domestic employees outside of the office. IT and customer service primarily. Commute, office space and location could be exponentially improved. Video conferencing and remote work has had tremendous resistance in the US. Productivity wise, how much cheaper was the NFL draft? Many customary face to face sitting in an office are unnecessary. You can’t tell me it is efficient to sit in an office on the 40th floor and login to an office computer. Why does a law firm need for floors of expensive real estate? The productivity may come from lessons learned from the isolation.

[JBME]

Long term: The health issues may have short term negative and long term positive impacts on the economy. Business , healthcare and education have resisted online work . Whether it’s power, culture or just the way things are done,many functions are more efficient remotely.
US has typically “outsourced” rather than managing domestic employees outside of the office. IT and customer service primarily. Commute, office space and location could be exponentially improved. Video conferencing and remote work has had tremendous resistance in the US. Productivity wise, how much cheaper was the NFL draft? Many customary face to face sitting in an office are unnecessary. You can’t tell me it is efficient to sit in an office on the 40th floor and login to an office computer. Why does a law firm need for floors of expensive real estate? The productivity may come from lessons learned from the isolation.

oh you don't have to tell me! I worked for 5 years completely from home as a W2 and it was great-I was incredibly productive because I didn't have someone coming by my desk just to chat. My current place where I've been working for 4 years has been very resistant to WFH. They were of the mindset that if you're at home you can't possibly be working. Now it's forced on us and finally despite all of their resistance they now see it is possible. I personally think (because I'm a pessimist) that eventually we'll just go back to the usual, but you're not wrong on any of this

[Tim]

Unmentioned downside, your at home work will be monitored and metrics put in. Signed in, im’s, inactivity logs you out and all types of oversight.
Strange stuff looking over your shoulder.

[FIREshrink]

up 2% after we see that 1st qtr GDP fell nearly 5%, worse than expectations. this is the worst number since 2008

the market doesn't make sense

S&P500 on track for its best month in 46 years. Hope the pessimists didn’t miss out!

[EntrepreneurMD]

Both pessimists and optimists are outperformed by realists. Pessimism and optimism depend on flawed human emotions, realism is based on data.

A pessimist would have sold in the last month. An optimist would have bought into a treasury inverted bull. A realist has clarity to not have done either and outperforms with investment asset purchase choices and timing, because he/she has the data and suppresses the flaw of emotion.