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  • Originally posted by ScubaV View Post
    For my last three biweekly pay periods the market has gone on a run leading up to my auto-contribution and then fallen the following week. It's really annoying.

    Same thing has happened to me. Very annoying.

    Comment


    • I think doing elective surgeries is a terrible idea. Waste of PPE. Exposure of patients in a hospital environment. Opportunity for the virus cases to, well, go viral.
      If we end up with hundreds of thousands of more cases and many more dead and an extended period of lockdown, then was that revenue stream "helpful".
      Myopic in my opinion, but I am unable to look at it objectively. My life may depend on smart choices of other humans.........I'm less than optimistic.

      Comment


      • This time seems different than every other... we may have already seen the bottom. The Fed is pulling out all the stops, going so far as to buy junk bonds! Ridiculous! Also 4.2T already allocated to the big corporations and private equity groups. Small biz is hurting badly, but they don't make up the stock market as a whole.

        The black swan event caused a black swan dive in the market and may lead to a black swan partial recovery (thanks to Fed and bailouts), given that we are currently only 15% or so off the all time highs.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post
          Yes oil is in collapse first and foremost because of the OPEC Russia tantrum. COVID hasn't helped but is not the cause. US producers are stuck between two big players who can each produce far cheaper than we can .
          Nope. Only reason that even happened was china demand due to covid. Everything falls back to the virus.

          The demand destruction is on the order of 50 million bpd. It's not common but demand issues cause a much bigger problem than supply for oil.

          Comment


          • The price dynamics of oil is due to the relatively inelastic demand and supply curves in the short term. So a large shift in the location of the demand or supply curve (eg Coronavirus, middle eastern war) has a large effect on price.

            Looking at the price increase in oil producers in the last 24 hours makes me think I was premature in buying nasdaq world oil producer index recently. I bought about 2% of the exposure I want to get in a bottom. But the rally makes me think the bottom is a while away.

            My thoughts atm are that the front month contract may fall to $10 or even close to zero in the next 2-3 months. US is 20% oil demand and I’m pessimistic things can be reopened in the next month without problems. I could be wrong.

            Maybe Houston will be cactus. I have no idea.

            The other problem is how to play this with the super contango in the futures oil curve.

            Munger did an interview recently on value and Coronavirus:
            https://www.ccn.com/why-charlie-mung...-market-crash/

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post
              The other problem is how to play this with the super contango in the futures oil curve.
              Here recently was the first time I've heard that word. I'm going to try to start using it in everyday conversations.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
                This time seems different than every other... we may have already seen the bottom. .
                But isn't that how it always feels when in the moment? IDK but I can't imagine the market could possibly make it through this unscathed.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Zaphod View Post

                  Nope. Only reason that even happened was china demand due to covid. Everything falls back to the virus.

                  The demand destruction is on the order of 50 million bpd. It's not common but demand issues cause a much bigger problem than supply for oil.
                  Oil was $150 in 2008, $110 in 2014, $80 two years ago and $50 on Feb 1.

                  OXY was $85 in 2018, $65 in early 2019, and $35 in dec 2019, before COVID.

                  Since then oil has collapsed but it was on its way without the virus.

                  Comment


                  • so i bought 3/25 after a lot of random TLH.......missed the bottom by 2 days. Click image for larger version  Name:	unintitiled.png Views:	0 Size:	4.5 KB ID:	200048
                    and we are now up 15.8% since then......28.5% if you timed it perfectly.

                    to those thinking about re-balancing, TLH, etc...why have you waited?
                    to those still out of the market......why?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post
                      The price dynamics of oil is due to the relatively inelastic demand and supply curves in the short term. So a large shift in the location of the demand or supply curve (eg Coronavirus, middle eastern war) has a large effect on price.

                      Looking at the price increase in oil producers in the last 24 hours makes me think I was premature in buying nasdaq world oil producer index recently. I bought about 2% of the exposure I want to get in a bottom. But the rally makes me think the bottom is a while away.

                      My thoughts atm are that the front month contract may fall to $10 or even close to zero in the next 2-3 months. US is 20% oil demand and I’m pessimistic things can be reopened in the next month without problems. I could be wrong.

                      Maybe Houston will be cactus. I have no idea.

                      The other problem is how to play this with the super contango in the futures oil curve.

                      Munger did an interview recently on value and Coronavirus:
                      https://www.ccn.com/why-charlie-mung...-market-crash/
                      Have you seen the curve? Massive contango in front month set to roll as people dive in bottom fishing, they will be crushed at roll even if it manages to stay flat.

                      Lots of people are going to be learning soon what futures, term structure, roll yield, spot, contango and backwardation are pretty soon.

                      Comment


                      • i will read this word (contango) as manchego from here on out....

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post

                          Oil was $150 in 2008, $110 in 2014, $80 two years ago and $50 on Feb 1.

                          OXY was $85 in 2018, $65 in early 2019, and $35 in dec 2019, before COVID.

                          Since then oil has collapsed but it was on its way without the virus.
                          Maybe on its way but that was probably a supply issue, which is smaller in scale and controllable (if you can agree, which has broken down recently), whereas demand shocks are absolutely massive in contrast and you cant do anything about it but stop producing, and usually you need the money since demand shock means bad global things.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Peds View Post
                            so i bought 3/25 after a lot of random TLH.......missed the bottom by 2 days. Click image for larger version Name:	unintitiled.png Views:	0 Size:	4.5 KB ID:	200048
                            and we are now up 15.8% since then......28.5% if you timed it perfectly.

                            to those thinking about re-balancing, TLH, etc...why have you waited?
                            to those still out of the market......why?
                            Because!
                            IRA’s have the big bucks.
                            Rebalance would increase AA.
                            Rather than cave to the emotional of changing AA (which is probably too high), I let the market do it for me.
                            That is my rationalization. Good enough before, I can ride it back up, or down or sideways. Good enough after. Sure I could recover faster, or lose more, or stay the same.
                            This market is a gamble. Holding my cards. If I adjust, it will be AFTER.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Peds View Post
                              so i bought 3/25 after a lot of random TLH.......missed the bottom by 2 days. Click image for larger version Name:	unintitiled.png Views:	0 Size:	4.5 KB ID:	200048
                              and we are now up 15.8% since then......28.5% if you timed it perfectly.

                              to those thinking about re-balancing, TLH, etc...why have you waited?
                              to those still out of the market......why?
                              ditto and rebalanced bonds to equities & deployed cash into equities during lows, but now am holding off buying more because it's nuts, I know markets aren't supposed to make sense but when last week's jobless claims hit 5.245 million, raising monthly losses to 22 million, and yet Dow on friday +3%... I'm having a hard time with this...
                              It's psychosomatic. You need a lobotomy, I'll get a saw.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Zzyzx View Post

                                ditto and rebalanced bonds to equities & deployed cash into equities during lows, but now am holding off buying more because it's nuts, I know markets aren't supposed to make sense but when last week's jobless claims hit 5.245 million, raising monthly losses to 22 million, and yet Dow on friday +3%... I'm having a hard time with this...
                                Well you see it makes perfect sense in the context of the trillions being pumped into the market via stimulus. Not to mention low oil prices and the availability of cheap labor due to all the unemployment. 5G is coming which is just a cover for covid but it is pushing the market higher as a side effect. And the biggest influence is the combined gravity of Mars and Jupiter in alignment pulling everything up.

                                Just my scientific opinion.

                                Comment

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