Tesla shorts with barely a tattered thong left....

[Hatton]

Interesting to see the psychology behind the exhilaration of choppy 100%, 200% or even 300% Tesla returns. Not really for me.

I feel the same way about funds that deliver 25-35 fold 10-year returns! Apple did great, but even then it just had an 11 fold 10-year return over the same time frame, with greater risk as an individual company. Netflix actually did over 40 fold. MKTX about 30 fold. Actually many companies have outperformed Apple over the past 10 years including TDG, ABMD, AVGO, URI, REGN and others. Apple makes the most flashy headlines.

There will always be a stock that does better than the one you own. They do better until they don't.

[Zaphod]

You have to disconnect the stock and the company, they are not even remotely connected in this stock. This trades like a low float biotech. Short interest is still incredibly high but those numbers are not reported very dynamically and arent perfect, but by any sense very high. Could cause further squeezing.

Last year as suspected, they probably were nearly bankrupt after march, but did a quick raise which salvaged them and then they were able to change the narrative. No one I think is better than musk at this, not even remotely.

If you hold tesla stock you should treat it as a trading stock and not a reflection of the company, who still hasnt posted an operational profit and whose revenue growth has stalled despite a large increase in sales. This doesnt matter at all to the stock currently, and somewhat shockingly, but that was obvious after q3. Follow the narrative, nothing else matters.

Now I think the next year or two they really have minimal debts to worry about, which has been their nemesis the last couple years, so they could do pretty well from a cash standpoint for a good amount of time even if sales just moderated.

[White.Beard.Doc]

not a reflection of the company, who still hasnt posted an operational profit

Tesla posted their first annual profit of 35.8M on 24.6 billion in revenue for 2019, although their capital expenses for new factories and such was more than their profits. 2020 is likely to see a very large increase in sales with the Model Y shipping in the next month or so.

It looks like Elon's plans are going to come to fruition, hence the crazy stock price which anticipates Tesla becoming a future dominant car manufacturer throughout the world. Time will tell. I will likely own another Tesla in the form of a Model Y before the year is out.

[EntrepreneurMD]

There will always be a stock that does better than the one you own. They do better until they don't.

Yes, that's why I don't touch individual stocks with a 10 foot pole. If I did, neither Tesla nor Apple would be on the top of my list based on past and expected revenue growth, debt, market cap, etc.

I do however, play the game with mutual funds. My 32% 10-year annualized has remained number one performer (as far as I can see) for essentially the entire decade, already in the top 0.1% YTD. If you find any that has done better let me know and I'll look at the holdings. I'm not married to any one fund. If you find a 33+% 10-year return I'll be very disappointed in myself. Yes, that's a challenge!

I have found 10 year records critical in finding funds holding companies with better growth potential and a proven track record. I use 10-year returns to pick funds, but YTD or 1 year returns to time purchases at short term pullbacks.

[Hatton]

Yes, that's why I don't touch individual stocks with a 10 foot pole. If I did, neither Tesla nor Apple would be on the top of my list based on past and expected revenue growth, debt, market cap, etc.

I do however, play the game with mutual funds. My 32% 10-year annualized has remained number one performer (as far as I can see) for essentially the entire decade, already in the top 0.1% YTD. If you find any that has done better let me know and I'll look at the holdings. I'm not married to any one fund. If you find a 33+% 10-year return I'll be very disappointed in myself. Yes, that's a challenge!

I have found 10 year records critical in finding funds holding companies with better growth potential and a proven track record. I use 10-year returns to pick funds, but YTD or 1 year returns to time purchases at short term pullbacks.

To me mutual funds are really buy and hold. If you trade I would do ETFs or individual stocks.

[Zaphod]

Tesla posted their first annual profit of 35.8M on 24.6 billion in revenue for 2019, although their capital expenses for new factories and such was more than their profits. 2020 is likely to see a very large increase in sales with the Model Y shipping in the next month or so.

It looks like Elon's plans are going to come to fruition, hence the crazy stock price which anticipates Tesla becoming a future dominant car manufacturer throughout the world. Time will tell. I will likely own another Tesla in the form of a Model Y before the year is out.

Unsure where you got that number, maybe its non-gaap or something, because they lost 862M dollars, slightly less than last year. You should be able to easily come across multiple confirmations of that.

Maybe it was this CNN snippet:

"Tesla has had only a handful of quarterly profits in its 10 years as a public company. On a strict accounting basis the company posted yet another loss for 2019. However, Tesla posted a $386 million profit in the final three months of 2019 using the operating basis followed by most analysts and investors. That left it with a narrow $35.8 million profit for the year."

Yes, if one goes by actual accounting, still nearly a billion in losses.

[BCBiker]

I've been long Tesla forever and it is my only serious non-index fund position. Zaphod and I have duked it out a few times on here. I once told him that my goal is to take a nice vacation in retirement on my TSLA earnings. All I can say is "funding secured". Just in profits taken from some short term call options that are now in index funds I will take some very nice vacations 20-30 years from now and I still hold all shares indefinitely.

The only foreseeable set back to TSLA business will be seasonally weak Q1. But those Q1 numbers will be bolstered by proven production run rate of over 100K cars from California, Made in China Model 3, and Model Y deliveries this quarter, we should see QoQ growth and perhaps >100% YoY growth that is a bit of an artifact of transition to global M3 deliveries in Q12019. If Q1 is a profit the stock will go over $1000 per share immediately and possibly >$1500-2000 by end of year. If there is negative QoQ deliveries or a substantial non-GAAP loss in Q1, we may see a pull back which I will be buying heavily on.

[BCBiker]

Unsure where you got that number, maybe its non-gaap or something, because they lost 862M dollars, slightly less than last year. You should be able to easily come across multiple confirmations of that.

Maybe it was this CNN snippet:

"Tesla has had only a handful of quarterly profits in its 10 years as a public company. On a strict accounting basis the company posted yet another loss for 2019. However, Tesla posted a $386 million profit in the final three months of 2019 using the operating basis followed by most analysts and investors. That left it with a narrow $35.8 million profit for the year."

Yes, if one goes by actual accounting, still nearly a billion in losses.

2020 will be a GAAP profit for TSLA, some are predicting as much as $14 per share. I personally don't think it will be that high (just enough to shut people up who say they are not profitable) because they will prioritize growth without share dilution and fund growth through operational income. If you want to worry about GAAP-loss in a business that is growing at >50% with a >$1B cashflow in a single quarter, fine, but I think many investors will continue to see this as the prime equity of the decade.

[Zaphod]

2020 will be a GAAP profit for TSLA, some are predicting as much as $14 per share. I personally don't think it will be that high (just enough to shut people up who say they are not profitable) because they will prioritize growth without share dilution and fund growth through operational income. If you want to worry about GAAP-loss in a business that is growing at >50% with a >$1B cashflow in a single quarter, fine, but I think many investors will continue to see this as the prime equity of the decade.

I feel like Im taking crazy pills.

Yes, the stock is ripping and behaving as if that was the case....but that doesnt mean it is. Revenue, profits, etc....are easy to look up and you can do so straight from Tesla website/IR.

Tesla's 2019 revenue growth was 2% yoy, just a bit of the farthest cry from 50% as one can get. Automotive was 1%, this is directly from Teslas website.

If this is somehow not the case, please let me know.

Again, stock performance does not necessarily follow company performance, especially for Tesla.

Im glad you made a lot of money, and hope you continue to.

[Tim]

I agree. My interest in owning a Tesla as my next vehicle will likely be because of AI. I think this will keep me driving into my 80s. I doubt I am the only person who forsees this.

No one can really predict the decline in physical skills. Hatton will probably make to the last day. “Checking out, give my keys to my dog!”
On a serious note, in geriatric care, is their any “testing/diagnosis” for family to consider taking away driving privileges? The reality is families usually do it after an accident. It’s a tough privilege to take away .

[BCBiker]

I feel like Im taking crazy pills.

Yes, the stock is ripping and behaving as if that was the case....but that doesnt mean it is. Revenue, profits, etc....are easy to look up and you can do so straight from Tesla website/IR.

Tesla's 2019 revenue growth was 2% yoy, just a bit of the farthest cry from 50% as one can get. Automotive was 1%, this is directly from Teslas website.

If this is somehow not the case, please let me know.

If you look through heavily biased lens, you can point to one data point which is easily explained in the context of everything else and is an outlier to all other metrics.

Q42018 was a banner quarter, the last quarter of exclusive M3 in US/Canada just before large drop in US tax credit. They did not have leases for M3. They were selling high ASP M3s, S and X. They have not updated the much higher ASP S and X. If they cared about max ASP they would update the tech in S and X to M3 standards (specifically the ability to use V3 super chargers) which would lead to increase S and X sales. They have a very healthy cash flow without this.

The M3, MIC M3, and Y is what matters in Q42019-2021 and beyond. 80-100K S and X luxury cars per year will look so quaint in 5 years when they are selling 3-5M cars globally.

If you don't think they are growing, Tesla sold more cars in Q42019 than they did in all of 2017. They currently have the capacity to build 650,000 cars per year with the current factories with MIC MY and Berlin up and running next year which will push them over 1M cars per year capacity.

Analyst expected that Q42019 revenue would actually be lower than Q42018 (due to points above) but they delivered above that which is one reason the stock went up. The operational efficiency is profound as they build factories adjacent consumers in China and Europe at fractions of cost of California factory. This is and will be the biggest large cap growth stock of the decade.

I don't know how this is not obvious. You said that they would be in a financial death spiral last year because no one would lend them money. They would not have run out of money if they had not raised then because they have had over $2B in free cash flow since Q12019. You said that there was no demand. The current backlog for M3 orders is at least 8 weeks and the Y and Cybertruck are going to be much more popular than the M3.

The stock price is not an accident and you have been consistently wrong so I reserve the right to flaunt my gains to you for the indefinite future.

[Zaphod]

If you look through heavily biased lens, you can point to one data point which is easily explained in the context of everything else and is an outlier to all other metrics.

Q42018 was a banner quarter, the last quarter of exclusive M3 in US/Canada just before large drop in US tax credit. They did not have leases for M3. They were selling high ASP M3s, S and X. They have not updated the much higher ASP S and X. If they cared about max ASP they would update the tech in S and X to M3 standards (specifically the ability to use V3 super chargers) which would lead to increase S and X sales. They have a very healthy cash flow without this.

The M3, MIC M3, and Y is what matters in Q42019-2021 and beyond. 80-100K S and X luxury cars per year will look so quaint in 5 years when they are selling 3-5M cars globally.

If you don't think they are growing, Tesla sold more cars in Q42019 than they did in all of 2017. They currently have the capacity to build 650,000 cars per year with the current factories with MIC MY and Berlin up and running next year which will push them over 1M cars per year capacity.

Analyst expected that Q42019 revenue would actually be lower than Q42018 (due to points above) but they delivered above that which is one reason the stock went up. The operational efficiency is profound as they build factories adjacent consumers in China and Europe at fractions of cost of California factory. This is and will be the biggest large cap growth stock of the decade.

I don't know how this is not obvious. You said that they would be in a financial death spiral last year because no one would lend them money. They would not have run out of money if they had not raised then because they have had over $2B in free cash flow since Q12019. You said that there was no demand. The current backlog for M3 orders is at least 8 weeks and the Y and Cybertruck are going to be much more popular than the M3.

The stock price is not an accident and you have been consistently wrong so I reserve the right to flaunt my gains to you for the indefinite future.

Im not sure how knowing the actual underlying numbers accurately is heavily biased as opposed to being off by a factor of 25x or someone (not you) being 1B dollars wrong on profit?

You mentioned things like revenue and profit as a reasoning, not deliveries, I simply pointed out the facts from their own investor presentation. The metrics have shifted.

I said if they did not get a cash injection they would be in trouble, and they were, knowing how Elon operates, they were likely in dire straits before the raise and the bond market and even stock price reflected as much. I also clearly said a cash infusion could turn it all around and wondered why they hadnt already which was fair. None of it made sense that he didnt raise with a higher share price (aka, cheaper financing) yet did so while they were tanking and getting margin calls. They should strike now while they are darlings again and share price is awesome.

Nothing changes the fact they are exceedingly over valued and frankly cant really deliver on that promise from a financial standpoint, but that doesnt matter and have said as much as long as people are willing to overlook it and someone is able to fund them through their money burning operations. They seem to have zero difficulty with that. Now with sustained production/demand, and little debt coming due in next couple years, they are kind of in the sweet spot. Last year was the tough year, and they made it through. No one is better than Elon at managing the market.

Im surprised by the cybertruck, I dont know how they'll have to modify it to be street legal, but I think it will have a loyal, maybe small following. People like its aesthetic, though def not a truck truck and def a cyber truck.

Maybe one day financial reality will matter, but that day is not today.

Stock price is a factor of lots of things, often things we arent paying attention to like float and shares short and all kinds of things. Tesla is now officially a safety stock as it does well when market tanks.

[DCdoc]

Small sidebar. It’s so cold here. Waiting the 10 minutes for my ICE to heat up while driving, to get hot air, is painful. Do Tesla’s heat up immediately? I’ve been considering one for a while but if they do, that might put me over the edge in wintertime.

[White.Beard.Doc]

Small sidebar. It’s so cold here. Waiting the 10 minutes for my ICE to heat up while driving, to get hot air, is painful. Do Tesla’s heat up immediately? I’ve been considering one for a while but if they do, that might put me over the edge in wintertime.

Teslas heat up quite rapidly. The seat heaters are quite fast. But what really makes the difference is not how fast the car heats up. It is the mobile app. In both hot and cold weather, when I am getting ready to leave the hospital, I simply open my app and precondition my vehicle. In the 5 minutes it takes me to walk to my Tesla, I arrive and it is toasty warm on a cold day, or nice and cool on a 90 degree summer day. Pretty sweet!

[Tim]

Teslas heat up quite rapidly. The seat heaters are quite fast. But what really makes the difference is not how fast the car heats up. It is the mobile app. In both hot and cold weather, when I am getting ready to leave the hospital, I simply open my app and precondition my vehicle. In the 5 minutes it takes me to walk to my Tesla, I arrive and it is toasty warm on a cold day, or nice and cool on a 90 degree summer day. Pretty sweet!

You call a remote start pretty sweet? Got one em on a 2007 Honda Accord. Never heard “precondition”, did you mean heater or air conditioning? Just kidding how far do you park from the hospital? Just saying 5 minutes is at a slow jog is well .....like time to have a 4 minute conversation and hit the road. Pretty cool.
Guess what? You set one temperature and it is soooo smart, don’t matter if 32 or 90, right on the spot. I didn’t get the sound effects. The one that says “stand back” or a “train whistle” or a “big rig horn”. Those things are loud. Don’t need the bells and whistles. That was like $50 more. State of the art on a 2007? Marketing gimmicks. Available a long long time on any vehicle. Remote is not “Tesla”.