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Tesla shorts with barely a tattered thong left....

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  • Tesla shorts with barely a tattered thong left....

    I rarely violate my rule against purchasing individual stocks. However, back in 2009 I was intrigued by Musk’s latest venture and his vision for a new type of transportation. So I plunked down 5k to reserve a Model S, which took years to be delivered on a flat bed truck to my driveway. I also bought Tesla stock.

    And what a ride it has been. The acceleration of that Model S was scary. Talk about unintended acceleration. I would touch the accelerator pedal in my new Model S and it would instantaneously launch. I felt like I might launch right into the car in front of me if I wasn’t careful.

    And lately the stock is likewise experiencing unintended acceleration... $640 a share today. With this type of unintended acceleration, those shorts are going to have to do a lot more beyond notifying the NTSA.

  • #2
    Back in June the stock crashed by nearly 50% based on no news and no real changes with the company. The disconnect between the narrative the bears were pushing and the experience of actual owners became too great to ignore.

    I bought 50 shares at $194. It could have gone to zero, or it could become the next Apple. I suspect the second answer is correct. We'll see what happens, and it's such a trivial percentage of what I own that it only matters for funsies, but it's been a fun ride. I suspect it'll fall a bit before it goes higher since the valuation is pretty hard to justify for now.

    I do feel bad for people who fell for the artfully crafted, but painfully exaggerated and often fictional reports about the company. It's been a great lesson in why I won't ever be a "trader". The market is too easily manipulated by too many unknown parties, especially in the short term.

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    • #3
      I rather feel like that with Apple stock that I bought in 2008. I thought this type of rally (100% gain in 12 months) died with the .com implosion. I divested all individual stocks except this one a few years ago. Next car may be a Tesla.

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      • #4
        Guys there's already a tesla investment thread.

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        • #5
          My motivation to purchase an individual stock includes my opinion and trust of the organization's leader. Musk's presentation doesn't make me comfortable. No doubt he's creative and certainly forward thinking but IDK there is just something that Jobs had that Musk is lacking with regard to my gut's comfort level. Hopefully this is the next Apple and good luck to those of you on the wild ride!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Peds View Post
            Guys there's already a tesla investment thread.
            Yes, there is, but that thread is from 2018.

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            • #7
              Good luck to anyone who owns the individual stock. I really enjoy watching it, and I own it in proportion to the TSMI.

              Still, I haven’t seen many stocks trade on the basis of such strong emotions. Perhaps it will be like amazon, where financials don’t matter for a long time as they grow into a dominant market position over many years. But I worry when people point out that the old financial measures don’t apply to them and that it’s a new era... that sounds too much like dot-com crash talk.

              “The Shorts” have a deep and storied history, back to before the Great Depression, as the scapegoat for many a company’s poor performance. I don’t worry about them, but I do worry when a CEO starts bringing up these shadowy, faceless ne’re-do-wells as the cause of their problems.

              Either way, I wish Tesla the best, as an American car company. I hope they make a reliable, practical product that can roll for 20 years and 300,000 miles and when they become ubiquitous, I’ll get one.

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              • #8
                Shorts lost something like 12 billion I read.

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                • #9
                  I dipped my toes last summer in the low 200s, but it's such a small amount that it's just fun to watch the percentage rise. Of course now I wish I had invested more...

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                  • #10
                    Invest how you wish. It won't last forever. Pick your exit point carefully.
                    Short interest is publicly available. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activi...short-interest
                    Reported twice per month. Keep in mind, short positions are often used for hedging. One point of data is helpful, but does not necessarily tell the whole story.

                    From an industry standpoint, one needs to actually understand one key point with EV's. Is it "proprietary"? You like tech investments? Then you really need to understand the life cycle of innovations. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs would be a nice starting point . Then actually take a look at the "business history" of computers. One can do the same with cars. Market dominance is short lived without "proprietary" value and "proprietary" value has a shelf life.

                    https://www.networkworld.com/article...en-dwarfs.html
                    http://www.thecorememory.com/NCR-_Th...the_Dwarfs.pdf
                    https://www.computerhistory.org/timeline/computers/
                    https://www.wsj.com/articles/ginni-r...eo-11580420650
                    Big Blue was an absolute dominant player. IBM is hardly dominant now. https://www.wsj.com/articles/ginni-r...eo-11580420650
                    The government stepped in and made IBM "unbundle" the mainframe segment and then the evolution of the computer industry began. Take a look at the investment return's that Ginni Rometty achieved as CEO.
                    Fun positions can run a long long time. Unfortunately its up or down. Our old buddy Warren Buffet was in IBM, not too smart? Well, simply a poor investment he lost $2billion.
                    The point is size your positions on individual stocks appropriately.


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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Hatton View Post
                      I rather feel like that with Apple stock that I bought in 2008. I thought this type of rally (100% gain in 12 months) died with the .com implosion. I divested all individual stocks except this one a few years ago. Next car may be a Tesla.
                      I don’t know if Tesla will be the next Apple or not, but if the stock is hugely successful 10 years from now it won’t be because they manufacture the best electric vehicles. It will be because they are successful at monetizing the AI technology behind self driving vehicles, they are a tech company. I’m not a computer expert, but in talking to those in the field the key to success in AI is access to data, the more the better so your system can handle the “EDGE” cases similar to the zebra diagnoses in medicine. Every vehicle they sell gives them access to more driver data. Much more than Waymo, Uber, Ford etc driving their handful of data gathering test vehicles. I see Tesla as more like Amazon, test your technology then expand. Amazon started as an electronic Barnes&Noble and look where they are now.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by White.Beard.Doc View Post

                        Yes, there is, but that thread is from 2018.
                        I revived it with the latest run up lol.

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                        • #13
                          Interesting to see the psychology behind the exhilaration of choppy 100%, 200% or even 300% Tesla returns. Not really for me.

                          I feel the same way about funds that deliver 25-35 fold 10-year returns! Apple did great, but even then it just had an 11 fold 10-year return over the same time frame, with greater risk as an individual company. Netflix actually did over 40 fold. MKTX about 30 fold. Actually many companies have outperformed Apple over the past 10 years including TDG, ABMD, AVGO, URI, REGN and others. Apple makes the most flashy headlines.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by White.Beard.Doc View Post

                            Yes, there is, but that thread is from 2018.
                            And your stock from 2009

                            But congrats on taking the dive with him. We did it with Bezos way back finally bailed two years ago when we decided it was just too much single stock to own and rebalanced. Just didn't do it with Tesla though we're confident consumers of their product

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by GasFIRE View Post

                              I don’t know if Tesla will be the next Apple or not, but if the stock is hugely successful 10 years from now it won’t be because they manufacture the best electric vehicles. It will be because they are successful at monetizing the AI technology behind self driving vehicles, they are a tech company. I’m not a computer expert, but in talking to those in the field the key to success in AI is access to data, the more the better so your system can handle the “EDGE” cases similar to the zebra diagnoses in medicine. Every vehicle they sell gives them access to more driver data. Much more than Waymo, Uber, Ford etc driving their handful of data gathering test vehicles. I see Tesla as more like Amazon, test your technology then expand. Amazon started as an electronic Barnes&Noble and look where they are now.
                              I agree. My interest in owning a Tesla as my next vehicle will likely be because of AI. I think this will keep me driving into my 80s. I doubt I am the only person who forsees this.

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