Coronavirus- Risk (Health, Economic, Market)

[BCBiker]

Given incubation period, illness, and death period...you cant divide current deaths by current cases as that doesnt account for the lag. They are guesstimating that only 20% have serious enough symptoms to come to the hospital, in some papers 11% of those pts died. Everything will be different in better health care systems.

The relatively mild part is exactly the problem. The r0 has seemed to fall into the 2.2-2.5 averages, which while it sounds flu-ish level its extremely different, and after a few days can result in a dramatically larger population of infected people. Even with low death rates, and I agree will be much lower in US, etc...it increases the chance it spreads to a vulnerable population, which this seems to be mostly getting.

Unsure how difficult coronavirus is from a shifty standpoint, but its got to be easier than the flu, have to think theyll get some kind of vaccine if it lingers.

Many good points. It is an evolving story. The vaccine story will be interesting because the companies have to decide if it will be serious enough to make it pay off to develop. If quarantines are effective and the public loses interest they will lose a lot of money.

[Tim]

Many good points. It is an evolving story. The vaccine story will be interesting because the companies have to decide if it will be serious enough to make it pay off to develop. If quarantines are effective and the public loses interest they will lose a lot of money.

Will take a government push in reality. The companies have been working. A story of previous funding cutoffs.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-chance-109709

[Antares]

Anthony Fauci confirmed today unambiguous evidence of asymptomatic spread. Incubation period continues to appear variable from 2-14 days. I think given the low lethality and substantial infectious capacity, we are in for a long slog with this thing.

[BCBiker]

Will take a government push in reality. The companies have been working. A story of previous funding cutoffs.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-chance-109709

Interesting read. Seems like having a preapproved manufacturing process where company can insert virus specific genes in production vectors when novel viruses show up would be feasible and would allow rapid production scale up for these scenarios with minimal risk.

[Tim]

Do the math. Unfortunately it’s exponentially impossible for production.
The highest capacity I have seen in one year is one million. There are 56m effectively quarantined. Sure it can be changed, but the benefits of the healthcare capacity will be balanced against the economic cost. Catching up to that little bug might raise a few questions. Who gets the available doses? Even if they get the immunization, no pass on the math for production. Ain’t gonna happen. That’s I think is the motivation for extreme measures to minimize the spread.
Think about it. That little bug could turn China upside down healthcare, economic, and who knows politically. Interesting bug, just cold symptoms! Exponential problems even if it’s not deadly.

[Zaphod]

China is going to have some very real at least temporary economic impact, they have shut down cities of tens of millions, just wild. We can only hope that those measures were enough in enough time to really put a dent in transmission. And now that everyone else knows they can slow it in affected countries.

If you take the true start of the lockdowns and start adding lag times for incubation, you can get an idea of when we might see the effects of the lock down. A really crazy thing to see.

[EntrepreneurMD]

This is a good graphic from NYTimes. Assuming the range is 95% CI, I will give you concerning but not much more than that. The graphic should have a third dimension of how likely a contagious person is to be asymptomatic with HIV being the upper bound and Ebola being the lower bound. Ebola is similarly contagious to flu and other coronaviruses. It is just unlikely that you 1) have Ebola and 2) don't know it. There is a small chance that I shared a subway car with a coronavirus infected person at the peak of this outbreak but a 0% chance that happened when great Ebola scare was in full force.

It seems to me that the current coronavirus is harder to contain because people feel and look fine which probably means the death rate is on the lower side in line with seasonal influenza. The upper bound of deadliness is based on the 250 deaths compared to 12000 confirmed cases and I think we have plenty of evidence that the confirmation rate of all infected is less than 100%. Also the death rate in Western countries is currently in line with the common cold, currently zero and will probably remain that way.

Interesting. I thought that the common cold and seasonal flu were more contagious than shown here.

[Lordosis]

Yeah ebola being as contagious as the common cold seems wrong

[DEE F]

china stock market is down 9% in1 day. if twitter is correct, the Chinese are prohibited from selling anything until Feb 9. This is getting interesting.

[Tim]

Death toll exceeds SARS (still low rate).
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/03/asia/...hnk/index.html
Several videos (interesting) embedded in the news update. One intriguing fact (duh)- face mask shortage.
Like throwing a stone in a lake, the splash and ripple effects are on the surface but have a different effect below the surface. If you were fishing, it sure caused chaos below.
Why would politics be immune? China issued some type of statement blaming the USA for impacts caused by travel restrictions.
OPEC is meeting do to a glut of oil China isn’t going to need.
$393 billion is a big hit in one day for the Chinese markets. Rate cuts by the Chinese impact more than the cities in China.
A little bug sure has had a big impact in one week since it became news. US markets seem to be headed up. If it is contained in China, best case. Localized damage, similar to a hurricane or natural disaster.
It will fade from the news cycle, but underneath the surface it’s ripple will be felt for a year.

[Tim]

Coronavirus dropped Tesla 18.5% . Factory down in China. Market up around 1%.
China cracking down on public data and news reports.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/w...rus-china.html

That. Bug mutated. For a big cap, that’s little shutdown attacked an individual stock. It certainly cost some folks a lot of coin.

[Cubicle]

I feel like this is Tesla's "correction". But tomorrow I expect Tesla's stock to "recover" most of its losses. I'm prognosticating without evidence, just like the pros on tv do.

[JBME]

with the futures up again today due to china easing tariffs (which is funny because I think the market gained already on the idea that china would ease tariffs when the phase 1 announcement came out) it's clear the coronavirus correction is over. what, it lasted 2 weeks? less than that? I should have been more greedy when others were so fearful

[Tim]

It’s certainly over unless some how it spreads.
Just saying, don’t know how that little bug keeps causing such a ruckus. Poor folks on those cruise ships.
Tesla is still another 3% down on China today.
10 days into this, kinda still getting nervous. Crap, quarantine alone is 14 days.
Don’t think the impacts in terms of significance or duration will be known until it’s history.

[G]

Saw on CNN that Dr Li, the whistleblower, died. Oh, China....