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  • Buy the dip?

    So I'm not a big fan of market timing, but with Dow futures currently down 4-5%, I'll probably be buying during tomorrow's sale.  Anyone going to join?  How much do you buy in on panic dips?

  • #2
    I probably won't do anything.  But at the risk of becoming a prognosticator, my bet is this will be no "dip", this will be a full on bear market.  The market sentiment seems to have been waiting for cues all year long as to where to go. Economic indicators have been split, or even contradictory.  There seems to have been a lot of volatility this year, and then more recently it's been entirely stagnant. And we've had a long bull market which makes people edgy.  I could see active managers taking big positions in cash (a trend that's already been occurring this year) and keeping it there for some time waiting to see how policy shakes out. Reality is no president can wave a magic wand and create jobs or change sweeping global economic trends, so fighting them is likely counterproductive compared to trying to skillfully navigate the choppy waters. Dems will do what Repubs have done the last 8 years and haul out every tactic to freeze the government.  So a big ol' grizzly market is my guess.

    The biggest unfortunate consequence may be the reversal of many executive policies that have helped advance renewable energy in this country, which also works towards fighting climate change.

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    • #3
      You betcha, I just put in a bunch of buy orders.  I have saved up some cash just for this.  My 401k etc are still on auto-pilot--not market timing--but I was betting on this with my extra money.  Not that it made much of a difference, but I made the same guess with Brexit.

      Unfortunately, I'd wager that most of our net worths will take a hit unless you've done some really contrarian hedge investing....

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      • #4
        Probably just volatile and unpredictable for a while as moves unwind and people try to come to grips with the current situation. We dont really know what will happen economically, though we're in a fragile state right now that I dont wish any big surprises on...but we'll just have to see.

        That said, if he is able to get an infrastructure bill passed unlike obama the last 8 years that should be overall great. Assumes nothing crazy and harmful done simultaneously. Will be interesting since he has only shown volatility and no firm ideology by which to fully predict his moves, aside from personal best interest.

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        • #5
          Or the markets will open with little change, proving that even if you guess one thing (Clinton losing) you need to guess correctly about the next thing (market crashing).   

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          • #6




            Or the markets will open with little change, proving that even if you guess one thing (Clinton losing) you need to guess correctly about the next thing (market crashing).
            Click to expand...


            Haha - I was all ready to hit buy and then the market was up at open! What do I know?!?

            Doesn't matter how often economists say "the President really doesn't affect the economy", for some reason we still believe it!

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            • #7




              Or the markets will open with little change, proving that even if you guess one thing (Clinton losing) you need to guess correctly about the next thing (market crashing).   ?
              Click to expand...


              His speech is what saved the markets. Gracious and low on the severity of rhetoric about trade and deals. Gave hints of not being as wild and damaging as he gave off during campaign. It is still going to be volatile for a while as its uncertain for now.

              However, gridlock is basically over, which if some things get done and amended to be ok, will be positive overall. Now if they are the wild promises made thats another story. Heres hoping this politician fulfills the usual hardly any promises they have a record of.

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              • #8







                Or the markets will open with little change, proving that even if you guess one thing (Clinton losing) you need to guess correctly about the next thing (market crashing).
                Click to expand…


                Haha – I was all ready to hit buy and then the market was up at open! What do I know?!?

                Doesn’t matter how often economists say “the President really doesn’t affect the economy”, for some reason we still believe it!
                Click to expand...


                There is little to no correlation between markets and presidential elections, except in the very short term. That is why I took advantage of Obama's last election to convert to a Roth and converted more after the Brexit surprise. That is not market timing - it is taking advantage of a temporary opportunity.

                I have answered clients' questions about the election ever since Trump's nomination with the opinion that the market would generally approve is he were to be elected because he is a businessman. After hearing the mainstream sentiment that the markets would nosedive, I expected to get phone calls this morning. Futures were down 900 at 1am then to (500) soon after then (234) when I got to work this morning. The little correction that wasn't. Still have fingers crossed for...something! Had to put a few conversions on ice :cry: .

                If we were to go into a bear, it would be 99% coincidental resulting from a combination of many factors, including that we are rather overdue, even though market indicators are encouraging.

                Edit: just read this article - Trump's win is a grand slam for Wall Street banks.
                Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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                • #9
                  Liberal media states doom and gloom economy if Trump wins.  Now the article JOhanna posted says Grand Slam for banks and the economy.

                   

                  The media officially sucks.

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                  • #10
                    Dip?  What dip?  Wow, that was fast...lasted about, what, an hour and a half of the US markets being open, with the intra-day low being -0.3% on the S&P 500?  Am I reading that right?

                    That, or it hasn't happened yet...so much for my crystal ball.

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                    • #11




                      Dip?  What dip?  Wow, that was fast…lasted about, what, an hour and a half of the US markets being open, with the intra-day low being -0.3% on the S&P 500?  Am I reading that right?

                      That, or it hasn’t happened yet…so much for my crystal ball.
                      Click to expand...


                      The dip was in the futures market during the election where the exchanges limited down (hit their lowest allowed drop of about 5% overnight). Started climbing after the speech, and was a good day after all. As usual, we still dont know what happens next.

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                      • #12
                        Yup, too bad I don't deal in futures.  Missed a 5% overnight swing.  Oh well, back to boring ole dollar cost averaging.

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                        • #13
                          What crash of the markets? DOW was up the next day.

                          I find the doom and gloom scenarios predicted of the liberal media irritating. I used to like NY Times when it was a bit more objective but it has gone from a newspaper and became an opinion paper with columnists giving their opinion prominently than having the paper cover news. In the months leading up to the election there were not much stories on how Trump was working the Rust belt but more on Trump University and cases against it and how some black / Muslim got slighted by the crowd at Trump rallies. They would not have seen the support for Trump even if it had hit them on the face like a wet fish.

                          And yet they claim being incredulous at the major upset that Trump caused when the writing was on the wall for all to see. If they had not pushed and shoved Clinton down our throats they could have done a better job of reporting rather than opinionate every day. And totally rely on polls like 538 and claiming it was invincible - just like the Titanic.

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