Individual stock tip

[nephron]

I’m accumulating shares in CCL (carnival) and JETS. Five years from now you have to imagine these would have rebounded but who knows.

Did you buy carnival shares the day you posted this? The shares were $9.3 on March 18th. Today, they are up to $18.07. That's quite a profit for one week. I'm going to start day trading.

[fatlittlepig]

I bought some at 15, and then more at 10. I was able to pick up some BA in the low 90's, so that was a nice one. They could all go back down again. Who knows.

[xraygoggles]

I bought some at 15, and then more at 10. I was able to pick up some BA in the low 90's, so that was a nice one. They could all go back down again. Who knows.

You really timed the bottom perfectly. Maybe I should start listening to your advice.

I bought Carnival, but earlier this week. Also bought Uber and Disney.

[fatlittlepig]

You really timed the bottom perfectly. Maybe I should start listening to your advice.

I bought Carnival, but earlier this week. Also bought Uber and Disney.

Not necessarily, could go down again. Also I didn’t buy as much as I could have..

[Jack_Sparrow]

You really timed the bottom perfectly. Maybe I should start listening to your advice.

I bought Carnival, but earlier this week. Also bought Uber and Disney.

You should do like the guy i work with. For 4 years he's been 100% cash, one of these conspiracy theorist who thinks the market was going to crash to 50% and doesn't understand the market at all.

Last week he set Triggers bought Boeing @ $90 (now 160+), Bought IVR @ 3.8(now 6.4), Bought MITT @ 2.75(now 4.27) and Bought the DOW Jones Index when it was down 35%. S&P 500 when it was down 30%. He doesn't even know what he was doing, just got a brokerage account last week. He just heard me talk about it and bought way more of the stuff than he should have. I'm talking putting 30% of his portfolio into Boeing. and put 20% into those REITS.

You talk about a completely oblivious dumb luck market timer.

[xraygoggles]

You should do like the guy i work with. For 4 years he's been 100% cash, one of these conspiracy theorist who thinks the market was going to crash to 50% and doesn't understand the market at all.

Last week he set Triggers bought Boeing @ $90 (now 160+), Bought IVR @ 3.8(now 6.4), Bought MITT @ 2.75(now 4.27) and Bought the DOW Jones Index when it was down 35%. S&P 500 when it was down 30%. He doesn't even know what he was doing, just got a brokerage account last week. He just heard me talk about it and bought way more of the stuff than he should have. I'm talking putting 30% of his portfolio into Boeing. and put 20% into those REITS.

You talk about a completely oblivious dumb luck market timer.

It's only dumb luck if he sells for a profit.

Otherwise, it's just dumb.

[fatlittlepig]

My latest stock purchase XOM (Exxon mobile)

[Lordosis]

My latest stock purchase XOM (Exxon mobile)

I imagine oil and gas will recover at some point.

How significant a percentage of your portfolio is attributed to individual stocks? If you do not mind sharing.

[fatlittlepig]

I imagine oil and gas will recover at some point.

How significant a percentage of your portfolio is attributed to individual stocks? If you do not mind sharing.

i think about 1/5

[xraygoggles]

My latest stock purchase XOM (Exxon mobile)

Blue chip is a safer bet in the oil sector.

USO for risk taking.

[StarTrekDoc]

Funny how COVID changes things and perceptions on rebalancing and individual stocks; Have had Disney for the longest time when it was 90s and sold at the first big dip at 125 while dumping most of my BOA. Kept my 'loser' Zoom that we got back in Dec and so leftover BOA , paypal, ebay and V thinking people at home will still spend.

Guts with the cruising. That's not going to recover any time soon. I would be very interested in energy producers though once we get past the peak of this surge.

[Dont_know_mind]

Im more confident in airlines bouncing back eventually but I’m assuming cruise industry will bounce back eventually.

I would be very careful with investing in common equity in any company that has a reasonable chance of bankruptcy.

Even if there is a bailout in the aviation industry, equity is usually wiped out (eg GM in 2009).

At some stage, the distressed debt and bonds in these companies maybe worth a punt. If they survive you pocket 20% p.a yield. If they go BK, depending on the bankruptcy, you end up with a variable amount of equity in the entity coming out of BK.

Howard Marks has written some good books and articles on distressed debt investing and the whole area of vulture hedge fund investing is interesting. I’m not sure we have anywhere near enough information as individual investors to have a good chance of successful investment in this area, although the potential returns seem eye popping.

It would seem to me that medium or long term investing in common equity of airlines and cruise operators is very high risk knife catching at this point in time.

[fatlittlepig]

I would be very careful with investing in common equity in any company that has a reasonable chance of bankruptcy.

Even if there is a bailout in the aviation industry, equity is usually wiped out (eg GM in 2009).

At some stage, the distressed debt and bonds in these companies maybe worth a punt. If they survive you pocket 20% p.a yield. If they go BK, depending on the bankruptcy, you end up with a variable amount of equity in the entity coming out of BK.

Howard Marks has written some good books and articles on distressed debt investing and the whole area of vulture hedge fund investing is interesting. I’m not sure we have anywhere near enough information as individual investors to have a good chance of successful investment in this area, although the potential returns seem eye popping.

It would seem to me that medium or long term investing in common equity of airlines and cruise operators is very high risk knife catching at this point in time.

The administration has made it pretty clear that they are going to prop up the airline industry. The cruise line industry is a little different. The amount I'm investing, I'm perfectly willing to lose it all and will hold on for 10+ years if necessary, it's speculative.

[Dont_know_mind]

The administration has made it pretty clear that they are going to prop up the airline industry. The cruise line industry is a little different. The amount I'm investing, I'm perfectly willing to lose it all and will hold on for 10+ years if necessary, it's speculative.

Maybe. But it maybe wishful thinking that equity holders will not get wiped out (or massively diluted).

Jets is a good idea, but for me only after a few bankruptcies, which have not occurred yet.
It is about as attractive to me as HYG currently. Too early IMO.

Carnivale, very high risk. Way too early IMO. I think it will go bankrupt. I could be wrong. Not a gamble I’d want to take this side of BK.

I set a high bar for wholesale liquidation. That is the only time we have an edge over institutions.

Carnivale restructured out of BK would be considered uninvestable and that would interest me.

My only edge is patience. And stubbornness not to buy until I see extreme value.

Maybe I’ll miss some opportunities.

Behaviourally, I find I have to slow everything down as much as possible to reduce the risk of error.

As an active investor, I believe you only need to make 4 or 5 good investment decisions in your lifetime to do really well.

[fatlittlepig]

I’ll be the first to admit, I’m a very unsophisticated investor. I didn’t study the balance sheets and I don’t know much, I do know that I’ve been on a carnival cruise and I did like it. I think once the coronavirus epidemic blows over, life will return to a new normal, people will go on cruises again, cruise companies will become profitable again, earnings will increase, stock valuations will follow, and fatlittlepig will hopefully make a few bucks, and people will look back at the stock chart and say man I wish I bought carnival at 9 dollars..